Global financial markets experienced significant volatility on Friday. Fueled by optimism over a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran, stock markets across Europe, the US, and Asia broadly surged, while international oil prices plunged sharply to multi-month lows.
Media reports citing informed sources indicate that the US and Iran have reached consensus on a draft 14-point memorandum of understanding. The core elements of the deal reportedly include a US commitment to lift oil sanctions on Iran, withdraw troops from the region around Iran, and lift a maritime blockade. In return, Iran would agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The US President stated this "very strong memorandum of understanding" could be signed this weekend in Switzerland.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit route for approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply. Since the escalation of US-Iran tensions, the effective blockade of the strait has led to a cumulative reduction in global crude supply exceeding 1 billion barrels. Analysts estimate that if the strait reopens, between 1 million and 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian crude could return to the market, effectively easing supply tightness.
In response, WTI crude futures fell approximately 2.6% to $87.71 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped about 2.9% to $90.38 per barrel. The rapid decline in oil prices provided an immediate boost to airline and travel stocks, with shares of companies like United Airlines and American Airlines gaining over 9%.
In equity markets, risk appetite improved markedly. The three major US stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging more than 900 points, a gain of 1.86%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.54%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.75%. Asia-Pacific markets also showed strong performance, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index climbing 2.8% and South Korea's Kospi index advancing 4.6%. Europe's Stoxx 600 index also recorded a 1.7% gain.
However, analysts caution that the agreement is not yet finalized. A spokesperson for Iran's foreign ministry stated that related matters are still under negotiation and that external reports are speculative. The market must remain alert to the possibility of negotiations encountering setbacks.
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