China's imports of crude oil and natural gas fell sharply in April as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were nearly halted. Soybean imports, however, surged due to seasonal supplies from the United States and Brazil. Imports of some metals, such as aluminum, also showed unexpected strength. Data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 9 shows that crude oil imports in April fell by approximately 20% year-over-year to 38.471 million tonnes, the lowest level since July 2022. Natural gas imports dropped by about 13% to 8.418 million tonnes. The near-halt of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz was the direct cause of the sharp decline in energy imports, with the impact extending from upstream crude supply to downstream refined product exports. Exports of refined oil products in April plummeted by about 38% year-over-year to 3.119 million tonnes, the lowest level in nearly a decade. In contrast to the overall contraction in energy imports, soybean imports in April surged by nearly 40% year-over-year to 8.478 million tonnes, boosted by shipments from the United States and seasonal supplies from Brazil.
Notably, the Persian Gulf is also a key source of aluminum supply. However, leveraging its position as the world's largest aluminum producer, China's aluminum exports in April increased by about 15% year-over-year to 598,000 tonnes, reaching the highest level since November 2024. **Energy Imports Under Pressure** The Middle East typically accounts for about half of China's crude oil imports and nearly one-third of its liquefied natural gas. Crude oil imports of 38.471 million tonnes not only represent a significant year-over-year decline but are also lower than the March level. The March data included some cargoes that had already departed from the Persian Gulf before the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28. For liquefied natural gas, vessel tracking data from commodity analytics firm Kpler indicates that China's LNG purchases in April fell to an eight-year low, with a significant contraction in seaborne shipments. The natural gas shortage should have increased demand for coal as a substitute. However, coal imports in April also fell by about 13% year-over-year to 33.083 million tonnes, the lowest since June of last year. The main reason is that relatively high import coal prices prompted China to rely more on domestic production to meet the shortfall. Tightening energy supply has transmitted to downstream refining. Due to concerns about domestic energy shortages, China prioritized the allocation of refined oil products for domestic consumption, leading to a sharp drop in exports of diesel, gasoline, and other refined products to 3.119 million tonnes. In the metals sector, imports of unwrought copper and copper products edged up to 452,000 tonnes, benefiting from lower international copper prices in March due to war-related global growth concerns. However, imports of copper ore and concentrate fell by about 20% year-over-year to 2.352 million tonnes, a significant decline from the record levels of the same period last year. Iron ore imports remained relatively stable at around 104 million tonnes. In agricultural products, soybean imports in April surged by nearly 40% year-over-year to 8.478 million tonnes, driven by shipments from the United States and seasonal supplies from Brazil.
**Aluminum Exports Reach 17-Month High** The Persian Gulf is also an important source of aluminum supply. However, leveraging its status as the world's largest aluminum producer, China has partially offset this import gap and converted surplus capacity into increased exports. Aluminum exports increased by about 15% year-over-year to 598,000 tonnes, reaching a 17-month high. Steel exports, however, showed weakness, falling by about 9% year-over-year to 9.498 million tonnes. Analysts point out that the Middle East has become a significant buyer for Chinese steel mills in recent years, and regional instability has directly suppressed related demand. Data released by the General Administration of Customs shows:
* Exports of refined oil products in April: 3.119 million tonnes; January-April cumulative exports: 15.866 million tonnes, down 9% year-over-year. * Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in April: 598,000 tonnes; January-April cumulative exports: 2.053 million tonnes, up 8.9% year-over-year. * Exports of steel products in April: 9.498 million tonnes; January-April cumulative exports: 34.214 million tonnes, down 9.7% year-over-year. * Exports of rare earths in April: 5,308.6 tonnes; January-April cumulative exports: 19,887.6 tonnes, up 4.9% year-over-year. * Exports of fertilizers in April: 3.236 million tonnes; January-April cumulative exports: 11.39 million tonnes, up 17.5% year-over-year.
The latest data also shows that China's exports to the United States in April turned positive year-over-year, reaching 11.3%. According to Lynn Song, Chief Economist for Greater China at ING, trade with the U.S. may continue to improve this year, with semiconductor and automobile exports becoming the main pillars of China's external demand. Export growth to Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa will also continue to contribute.
**Price-Volume Divergence Persists Across Multiple Commodities in April** Data from the General Administration of Customs indicates that the trend of price-volume divergence continued across multiple categories, highlighting the price-driven nature of this import surge.
* Crude oil import volume fell nearly 20%, while import value rose 9%. * Imports of unwrought copper and copper products increased by only 3% in volume, but their value surged by 33%. * Imports of copper ore and concentrate fell 20% in volume, but their value increased by 12%. * The import value of integrated circuits grew by about 49%, while import volume increased by only 11%.
By volume, China's imports of soybeans, integrated circuits, and unwrought copper and copper products in April increased year-over-year by 39.42%, 11.26%, and 3.2%, respectively. Imports of refined oil products, crude oil, and copper ore and concentrate fell year-over-year by 49.27%, 19.95%, and 19.56%, respectively. By value, China's import value of integrated circuits, soybeans, and unwrought copper and copper products in April increased year-over-year by 48.81%, 44.13%, and 33.14%, respectively. The import value of refined oil products, natural gas, and coal and lignite fell year-over-year by 29.06%, 17.81%, and 9.55%, respectively. Data released by the General Administration of Customs shows:
* Crude oil imports in April: 38.471 million tonnes; January-April cumulative imports: 185.292 million tonnes, up 1.3% year-over-year. * Refined oil product imports in April: 1.809 million tonnes; January-April cumulative imports: 14.477 million tonnes, up 12.5% year-over-year. * Coal and lignite imports in April: 33.083 million tonnes; January-April cumulative imports: 149.360 million tonnes, down 2.1% year-over-year. * Natural gas imports in April: 8.418 million tonnes; January-April cumulative imports: 36.535 million tonnes, down 6.2% year-over-year. * Soybean imports in April: 8.478 million tonnes; January-April cumulative imports: 25.15 million tonnes, up 8.5% year-over-year. * Iron ore and concentrate imports in April: 103.854 million tonnes; January-April cumulative imports: 418.587 million tonnes, up 8% year-over-year. * Imports of unwrought copper and copper products in April: 452,000 tonnes; January-April cumulative imports: 1.567 million tonnes, down 9.8% year-over-year. * Imports of copper ore and concentrate in April: 2.352 million tonnes; January-April cumulative imports: 9.915 million tonnes, down 0.8% year-over-year.
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