China's industrial value-added output from enterprises above a designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, while the service sector's value-added output grew by 5.2%. Fixed asset investment nationwide, excluding real estate development, rose by 4.8%, and the total value of goods imports and exports expanded by 15.0%.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 16, preliminary calculations show that China's gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter reached 33.4193 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.0% in constant prices. This growth rate accelerated by 0.5 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year.
"The national economy started the year on a stable footing with a favorable beginning, demonstrating a trend of high-quality development that is both innovative and improving," said Mao Shengyong, deputy head of the National Bureau of Statistics. He noted that positive changes have emerged in the price sector, domestic demand's contribution to economic growth has significantly increased, and innovation-driven development, along with the rapid growth of new growth drivers, has played a notable supportive role. This strong start has laid a solid foundation for the full year's development.
Key indicators performed commendably, reflecting the steady and improving trend of supply and demand in the first quarter. Mao Shengyong highlighted that agricultural production showed favorable conditions. Industrial value-added output accelerated by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, while the service sector maintained rapid growth with a 5.2% increase.
Data further revealed that among 41 major industrial sectors, 34 achieved growth, representing 82.9% of the total. The leasing and business services sector, along with information transmission, software, and information technology services, saw value-added growth of 12.2% and 10.6%, respectively.
On the demand side, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points from the previous quarter. Retail sales of goods rose by 2.2%, while catering revenue grew by 4.2%.
Supported by policies targeting "two major areas" and "two new initiatives," domestic demand generally improved, with service consumption performing particularly well.
Dong Zhongyun, chief economist at AVIC Securities, stated that China's economic operation currently demonstrates "strong resilience, robust vitality, and improved quality and efficiency." Domestic demand contributed 84.7% to growth, an increase of nearly 30 percentage points year-on-year. Service retail sales grew by 5.5%, 3.3 percentage points higher than goods retail sales, with holiday consumption continuing to heat up and consumption potential in cultural tourism and sports sectors continuously being unleashed.
New forms of consumption continued to release potential. Online retail sales of goods and services increased by 8.0% year-on-year in the first quarter, significantly faster than the growth of total retail sales. New retail models such as unmanned stores and warehouse membership stores maintained double-digit growth.
Nationwide fixed asset investment grew by 1.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, turning positive. Investment in the primary industry increased by 15.9%, while that in the secondary industry rose by 5.8%. Excluding real estate development, private investment grew by 1.3%. Investment in high-tech industries increased by 7.4%, with manufacturing of computers and office equipment, aircraft and spacecraft manufacturing, and information services growing by 28.3%, 19.0%, and 20.9%, respectively.
Additionally, the quarterly growth rate of total goods imports and exports reached its highest level in nearly five years. Customs data showed that China's total goods import and export value reached 11.84 trillion yuan in the first quarter, a 15% year-on-year increase, marking the first time quarterly scale exceeded 11 trillion yuan.
High-tech manufacturing achieved high growth, with new growth drivers accelerating their accumulation. First-quarter data indicated that the cultivation of new quality productive forces has yielded results in high-end and intelligent development, continuously accumulating "innovation-oriented" momentum during economic transformation and upgrading.
Tian Lihui, a finance professor at Nankai University, noted that achieving 5.0% growth under pressure reflects some "unusual" aspects. The recovery of industrial value-added output growth to 6.1%, especially the double-digit growth in high-tech manufacturing, indicates that new quality productive forces are transforming from conceptual terms into practical momentum on the factory floor.
Data showed that value-added output of high-tech manufacturing above the designated size increased by 12.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, accounting for 16.9% of total industrial value-added output and contributing 2 percentage points to industrial growth. High-tech sectors such as aircraft and spacecraft manufacturing grew by 17.7%, while aircraft manufacturing surged by 27.3%.
Mao Shengyong emphasized that through years of effort, high-tech manufacturing has become more technologically advanced, with new growth drivers increasingly shouldering economic development. Although high-tech manufacturing accounts for less than 20% of total industrial value-added output, it contributed 32.6% to its growth. From January to February, high-tech manufacturing contributed 51.8% to the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size.
The leading role of intelligent development continues to strengthen. Mao noted that China has achieved phased breakthroughs in the commercial and scaled application of artificial intelligence (AI). By March, daily token calls exceeded 140 trillion, an increase of over 40% from the end of the previous year. AI development is empowering various industries, driving rapid growth in related sectors.
Additionally, as an important source of new quality productive forces, traditional industries are accelerating their upgrading through new technologies and products. Investment in equipment and tool purchases increased by 13.9% year-on-year in the first quarter. For example, in the chemical fiber industry above the designated size, the contribution of bio-based material manufacturing to value-added growth increased by 14.4 percentage points year-on-year.
Policy effects continue to manifest, providing confidence in achieving full-year development targets. Looking ahead, Mao Shengyong stated that although external uncertainties remain and domestic economic operations face challenges, including the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand, China possesses strong institutional advantages, accumulated industrial strengths, market advantages, and talent advantages. These conditions fully support the achievement of stable economic operation and high-quality development for the full year.
"Based on our market research, orders in some industries and for certain products are abundant, with some companies unable to handle all incoming orders, particularly in emerging sectors. Therefore, conditions remain for maintaining rapid growth in the next quarter and the full year," Mao said.
Dong Zhongyun believes that multiple supports underpin China's sustained economic recovery. New growth drivers have a solid industrial foundation, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing having full order books and sustainable growth momentum, continuing to play a pivotal role. There is still significant room for policy effects to be released, and ample policy reserves safeguard stable economic operation. The foundation for improving domestic demand is solid, with service consumption potential gradually being unleashed.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating, also noted that service consumption has shown steady improvement this year, attributable to improved consumer confidence, the extended Spring Festival holiday boosting demand, and policy support targeting service consumption. Looking ahead to April, the second batch of 62.5 billion yuan in subsidies for trade-in programs has been allocated, and its effect on stimulating related goods consumption will continue to be released.
As this year marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, Mao Shengyong further pointed out that China has previously introduced numerous policies, some of which have already taken effect, while others will continue to show results. A series of major strategic tasks, significant reform measures, and key engineering projects will be implemented successively. Meanwhile, China has sufficient policy space and rich policy reserves at its disposal.
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