Iran's announcement of a new restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz, combined with progress on a shipping management agreement with Oman, has reignited concerns in global energy markets. Brent crude briefly touched $97.93 per barrel, its highest level since July 23.
According to reports from September 6, Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, declared that new restrictions would be implemented across the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. The expanded restricted zone stretches from the US naval blockade line to loading ports, with vessels failing to coordinate with Iran facing sanctions listing, insurance invalidation, and future transit obstacles. Simultaneously, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed that negotiations with Oman regarding Hormuz shipping management had entered their final phase, including provisions for a temporary safe navigation corridor intended for submission to the International Maritime Organization.
The announcements briefly pressured oil prices downward, as market optimism about the Iran-Oman agreement supporting smoother shipping initially tempered gains, though prices remained elevated overall. Brent currently trades around $97 per barrel, near six-week highs, while West Texas Intermediate hovers around $93. Futures have climbed more than 30% since late February when the conflict began, with refined products like diesel witnessing even steeper increases.
Restricted Zone Strategy: Iran's Strategic Shift
During a September 6 interview with Iranian state television, Shamkhani characterized the restricted zone as a "policy shift" in Iran's approach to Hormuz. He stated that maps for the new international waterway had been finalized within Iranian and Omani territorial waters, with signing expected "within the coming days." He emphasized: "We will only commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open when the United States ceases its sabotage, threats, and attacks against Iran."
Stephen Zunes, an international relations scholar at the University of San Francisco, told Al Jazeera on September 7 that Iran's restricted zone proposal could be directly linked to the ongoing shipping agreement discussions with Oman. Zunes suggested the restricted zone would "further complicate the situation," as already overstretched US naval forces would need to patrol and maintain order over a larger area, while simultaneously making shipping companies and their insurers more reluctant to undertake risky transits.
Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf escalated threatening rhetoric further, warning on social media that American energy enterprises would become targets if Iranian tankers continued to face attacks. He wrote: "Our oil and gas production chain is vast, accessible, and exposed. American oil and gas companies operating in these waters and facilities face the same exposure. Strike our assets, and you will face retaliation."
Iran-Oman Agreement: Key Step in Control Competition
According to Bloomberg, negotiations between Iran and Oman concerning Hormuz shipping management have spanned several weeks and now approach conclusion. Baghaei characterized the arrangement as a "memorandum of understanding," noting talks had achieved "very good progress," while expressing hope there would be no "third-party interference" without naming specific nations.
The core of the agreement involves both Iran and Oman, which share borders with the Strait of Hormuz, seeking to formalize control over the waterway and potentially levy transit fees on vessels. This directly conflicts with US policy, which maintains a blockade on Iranian ports to curb oil exports while advocating for return to pre-conflict free navigation.
Citing data from analysts at Macquarie Group, Bloomberg reported that approximately 7 million barrels of crude and refined products currently traverse Hormuz daily, compared with around 20 million barrels before the conflict. Analysts noted that while only a limited number of shipowners are willing to transit at acceptable prices, this volume remains sufficient to sustain substantial petroleum flows.
Meanwhile, citing Reuters on September 7, shipping data from Kpler revealed that over the past ten days, an average of only ten commercial vessels passed through the Strait daily, marking the lowest level since May. September 6 saw just five ships transit, while September 5 recorded only two.
Diplomatic Impasse: Dimming Nuclear Prospects
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told ABC News on September 6 that Washington might ultimately decline to sign a nuclear agreement with Tehran, suggesting "a deal may have to wait until Iran's next government takes office," and hinting that the US could continue pursuing actions to dismantle Iran's "nuclear capabilities."
Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth interpreted Wright's comments as indicating significantly diminished expectations for near-term diplomatic resolution in Washington. CNBC noted that Wright's remarks represent negative news for the conflict-affected global economy, as America's two previous commitments—preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons while avoiding "endless war"—become increasingly difficult to fulfill.
Citing analysis from The Wall Street Journal, both Washington and Tehran had anticipated choking each other through control of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Vali Nasr, a former US State Department official, observed: "Both sides' predictions have failed, and both find themselves with no room to retreat."
The conflict, now in its seventh month, is imposing mounting political pressure on the Trump administration. US retail diesel prices have reached record highs, and Republican control of Congress faces serious risks in the November midterm elections.
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