Proposed revisions to the SSE Composite Index and the STAR Market Composite Index; a new round of refined oil price adjustments; interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan; and major U.S. tech earnings from Google and Microsoft.
Major News
Implementation of the revised compilation plan for the SSE series of composite indices. The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co., Ltd. previously issued an announcement deciding to revise the compilation plan for certain SSE series composite indices. The revisions include: (1) adding a weight cap rule that limits the weight of any single constituent to no more than 15%; and (2) adjusting the timing for removing risk-warning securities from "the next trading day after the second Friday of the month following the implementation date of the risk warning" to "the next trading day after the second Friday of the month following the announcement date of the risk warning." The remainder of the index compilation plan remains unchanged. The revised compilation plans for the above indices and their derivative indices will take effect on October 26, 2026.
A new round of refined oil price adjustment window is approaching. According to the "ten working days" principle, a new domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on October 29. Based on calculations by JLC, as of October 23 (the sixth working day), the average price of reference crude oil varieties was $104.80 per barrel, with a change rate of 5.41%, implying that domestic gasoline and diesel standard retail prices should be raised by 305 yuan per ton. The previous adjustment window was at 24:00 on October 15, when domestic gasoline and diesel retail price adjustments were suspended.
"Super Central Bank Week" arrives, with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and others set to meet. Next week, global financial markets will usher in a "Super Central Bank Week," with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and Bank of Canada all holding intensive policy meetings. Among them, the Federal Reserve's FOMC will hold its meeting from October 27 to 28 and announce its latest rate decision at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on October 29. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in October is 90.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 9.4%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged by December is 25.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 67.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 6.7%. Regarding the suspense over a Federal Reserve rate hike, institutions generally expect the Fed to "stay put" at its October meeting. CITIC Securities said that U.S. September CPI came in above expectations, with core month-on-month inflation running hot again and a broad range of items showing price increases, meaning inflation has not "fallen back toward target fast enough." It still expects the Fed to raise rates once more this year, meaning no move in October followed by another 25 basis point hike in December. CICC believes that the inflation rebound strengthens the need for the Fed to continue raising rates, but because recent increases in U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar have already tightened financial conditions in part, the Fed may remain patient. It expects a possible pause in October and another move in December.
October PMI data will be released. On October 31, October PMI data will be published. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in September, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and returning to expansion territory. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a clear recovery in the non-manufacturing sector.
Major U.S. tech stocks such as Alphabet and Microsoft will disclose earnings intensively. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are among major U.S. tech stocks scheduled to release their latest earnings next week. Among them, Alphabet and Microsoft will report after the U.S. market close on October 28 local time, while Amazon, Intel, and SanDisk will disclose results after the U.S. market close on October 29 local time. In addition, South Korea's two major chip giants SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics will also announce third-quarter results next week.
Restricted shares with a market value of more than 106 billion yuan will be unlocked. Wind data showed that next week (October 26 to November 1), a total of 44 companies will have restricted shares gradually unlocked, totaling 4.142 billion shares, with a combined unlocked market value exceeding 106 billion yuan based on the closing price on October 23. In terms of unlocked market value, October 28 will be the peak period, with 12 companies having a total unlocked market value of 80.135 billion yuan. Based on the latest closing prices, the top three in unlocked market value are: Xi'an Yicai-U (60.283 billion yuan), Suochen Technology (7.3 billion yuan), and Heyuan Biotechnology-U (6.347 billion yuan). In terms of the number of unlocked shares by individual stock, the top three are: Xi'an Yicai-U (2.837 billion shares), Heyuan Biotechnology-U (201 million shares), and Mabwell Biotechnology-U (169 million shares).
New Stock Opportunities
Next week, one new stock will be issued, namely KERUISI on the STAR Market. KERUISI plans to publicly issue no more than 17.1286 million shares and will be issued on October 29, with the subscription code 787827. Public information shows that KERUISI is mainly engaged in the research and development, production, and sales of fully direct-drive CNC machine tools and CNC system products. It is a leading domestic company in fully direct-drive CNC machine tools and one of the few domestic enterprises that simultaneously owns PWM-type CNC systems and bus-type CNC systems, with both types of CNC systems having already achieved scale sales.
Comments