A report from China Merchants Securities indicates that since the fourth quarter of 2025, the global quantum computing field has witnessed multiple breakthrough advancements, with technological maturity and industrialization progressing at a significantly accelerated pace. High-level policy design has laid a solid foundation for the development of the quantum technology industry. Currently, superconducting quantum computers, as the mainstream technical solution in the quantum computing field, have garnered widespread industry attention due to their advantages in scalability, ease of control, and compatibility with integrated circuit processes. The institution recommends focusing on areas such as superconducting quantum chip systems, quantum computing measurement and control systems, quantum computing environmental support, and quantum computer operating software systems. The main viewpoints of China Merchants Securities are as follows.
Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the global quantum computing field has welcomed several breakthrough developments, with technological maturity and industrialization processes accelerating markedly. On October 22, 2025, the research team at Google Quantum AI published a paper in the journal Nature. Utilizing their self-developed "Willow" chip, designed for quantum computers, their newly developed "quantum echo" algorithm achieved the first verifiable quantum advantage. This new algorithm, running on the Willow chip, solved an atomic interaction problem 13,000 times faster than the best traditional supercomputer, completing in hours a calculation that would take the Frontier supercomputer approximately 3.2 years.
On November 12, 2025, IBM announced a series of key innovations and progress at its annual Quantum Developer Conference, aiming to achieve quantum advantage by the end of 2026 and launch a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. In December 2025, a team led by Professor Pan Jianwei from the University of Science and Technology of China, using the superconducting quantum processor "Zuchongzhi 3.2," achieved quantum error correction below the fault-tolerant threshold on a surface code with a code distance of 7. This demonstration showed a significant decrease in logical error rate as the code distance increased, marking a key milestone for China in reaching the "below threshold, more correction leads to more accuracy" stage. It also opened a new, more efficient "all-microwave control" pathway compared to Google's approach in the US, laying a crucial technical foundation for future large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computing. In October 2025, NVIDIA announced the launch of NVQLink, an open system architecture designed to tightly integrate the extreme performance of GPU computing with quantum processors to build accelerated quantum supercomputers.
Top-level design and local implementation are combining forces to solidify the developmental foundation for the quantum technology industry. In the "CCP Central Committee Proposal for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," quantum technology was formally listed as the top priority in the future industrial layout. This signifies that quantum technology has been elevated from a frontier exploration to a strategic high ground that must be seized at the national level. Its development is no longer optional but a mandatory task crucial for future comprehensive national power competition, ensuring high-level security, and shaping new quality productive forces. Early in 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, focusing on quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum precision measurement, planned to deploy 17 key tasks to strengthen the tackling of common industrial关键技术, develop core components and equipment, enhance industrial public service capabilities, and promote the application of quantum technology in fields such as healthcare, transportation, energy, and finance.
Superconducting quantum computers represent the current mainstream technical solution. Quantum computing technology paths globally show a pattern of diversified development, with different routes having distinct advantages in terms of qubit count, fidelity, and application scenarios. Mainstream technical paths include superconducting quantum computing, ion trap quantum computing, photonic quantum computing, neutral atom quantum technology, and topological quantum computing. Currently, superconducting quantum computers, as the dominant technical scheme in the field, attract broad industry focus due to their scalability, controllability, and compatibility with integrated circuit processes.
IonQ: The World's First Publicly Listed Quantum Computing Company. Founded in 2015, IonQ specializes in developing quantum computers based on ion trap technology. The company has built full-stack capabilities in quantum computing, spanning hardware systems, cloud platforms, and system software. Its product lines are primarily divided into hardware and cloud services/software. In hardware, the company boasts three series of quantum computers—Aria, Forte, and Tempo (scheduled for 2026 release)—with leading industry performance metrics. In software, IonQ significantly lowers the barrier to entry and usage of quantum computing for users through its cloud services and underlying software, building a strong ecosystem moat. IonQ is currently the only quantum computing company whose services cover all three major public cloud platforms: Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, providing global users with the most extensive and convenient access channels.
Origin Quantum: A Leading Domestic Quantum Computing Firm. Established in 2017 in Hefei High-Tech Zone, Origin Quantum focuses on building the quantum computing industry ecosystem and creating independently controllable, engineered quantum computers. Its core businesses revolve around quantum chips, integrated quantum computing measurement and control systems, quantum operating systems, quantum software, quantum computing cloud platforms, and quantum computing science education. The Origin Wukong superconducting computer is the company's flagship product. Equipped with the 72-qubit independently developed superconducting quantum chip "Wukong Core," it is currently an advanced, programmable, and deliverable superconducting quantum computer. Multiple aspects, including hardware, chips, operating systems, and application software, are independently controllable, with a localization rate exceeding 80%.
A quantum computer comprises components such as the superconducting quantum chip system, the quantum computing measurement and control system, the quantum computing environmental support system, and the quantum computer operating software system. Among these, the quantum chip acts as the "brain" of the quantum computer. Key metrics like qubit count and coherence time directly define the boundaries of quantum computing power and application potential. China's quantum chip R&D has achieved a transition from following to running alongside international leaders, establishing an industrial base from research to mass production on the superconducting path. The quantum computing measurement and control system needs to interact with the quantum computing chip to achieve precise signal generation, transmission, and processing, greatly influencing the overall performance of the quantum computer. The quantum computing environmental support system is the "life support" that ensures the stable operation of the quantum computer. Its core function is to provide the quantum chip with the required extreme operating environment, where key equipment like dilution refrigerators are indispensable core supports for superconducting quantum computers. "Origin Sinan" is the first domestically produced quantum computer operating system. It enables efficient utilization of the quantum processor and effective collaboration between the quantum computer and classical computing platforms, featuring capabilities such as parallel execution of multiple quantum computing tasks, automatic calibration of quantum chips, and efficient management of quantum resources.
In the investment landscape of China's quantum computing industry chain, QuantumCTek is one of the most representative listed companies. Its products already cover quantum chip R&D, quantum computing measurement and control systems, quantum computing environmental support systems, and more, making it one of the few domestic enterprises with independently controllable capabilities in quantum computing.
Risk warnings include the risk of quantum technology development falling short of expectations, the risk of technological gaps and the digital divide, and the risk that quantum-related business of relevant companies may not yield significant performance in the short term.
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