Caitong Securities released a research report stating that Tesla's (TSLA.US) humanoid robot will focus on certainty and order volume from 2025 to 2026. The firm recommends paying attention to core targets with strong certainty and high value in the corresponding industrial chain.
The domestic robotics industry is still in its early stages, and investors are advised to monitor core robotics component companies that have secured orders or are undervalued. Given the accelerating progress in the humanoid robotics sector and the entry of new players, Caitong Securities remains optimistic about the industry.
**Review and Outlook for the Humanoid Robotics Sector** The report reviewed the robotics sector's performance in 2025: - The first wave was driven by Elon Musk's announcement of production targets, suggesting mass production of humanoid robots in 2025 and scaling to 50,000–100,000 units in 2026. - The second wave was fueled by Unitree's Spring Festival Gala performance, followed by its founder Wang Xingxing's participation in a private entrepreneurs' forum, pushing the sector to a peak.
Caitong Securities believes the sector may have bottomed recently, with upcoming catalysts including Tesla's Optimus Gen 3 launch, production ramp-up, and the IPOs of domestic robotics firms like Unitree and Leju Robotics.
**Cost and Market Projections** Assuming mass production (1 million units), the estimated cost per humanoid robot is ¥140,000, potentially creating a ¥140 billion market for the main units.
**Industrialization Accelerates** Leading robotics manufacturers such as Unitree and Ubtech have secured substantial orders, with Unitree and Leju Robotics nearing their IPOs, indicating rapid industrialization progress.
**Risk Factors** Potential risks include slower-than-expected industrialization, higher-than-expected raw material price increases, and intensified market competition.
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