On December 5, international silver prices surged significantly, driven by investor optimism over potential Fed rate cuts and increased holdings in silver ETFs. Spot silver in London briefly exceeded $59.33 per ounce, setting a new all-time high. The main silver futures contract on COMEX approached the $60 per ounce threshold, closing at $59.053—another historic peak.
Industry experts attribute the rally to declining global silver inventories, tightening physical supply. Analysts note severe shortages overseas, with markets currently in a stockpiling phase. Known as the "small-cap" of precious metals, silver is highly volatile. With a total market cap of approximately $2.7 trillion—just one-tenth of gold’s $27 trillion—even modest inflows can trigger outsized price swings. Year-to-date, spot silver has surged over 90%, outperforming gold.
According to the Silver Institute, high prices are expected to reduce 2025 global jewelry demand by 5% to 205 million ounces. However, investment demand (bars/coins + ETFs) is projected to hit a record 1.334 billion ounces, up 8.2% YoY, accounting for 37% of total demand and serving as a key price driver.
The gold/silver ratio currently stands at 75:1, well above the 20-year average of 60:1, suggesting silver remains undervalued. Bank of America raised its 2026 silver price target to $65/oz, while Citi and Standard Chartered forecast prices stabilizing above $55/oz from Q4 2025 through Q1 2026.
Retail demand for physical silver has spiked. On December 4, wholesale silver ingot prices in Shenzhen’s Shuibei district hit a record 13.378 yuan/gram, with jewelry at 16.52 yuan/gram. A local vendor noted, "Customers are flocking to buy silver—especially ingots for investment due to zero crafting fees."
Zhang Chining, a Guotai Junan Futures analyst, cited three catalysts: 1. Persistent bullish sentiment for precious metals amid recovering macro conditions; 2. Acute physical shortages, with exchange inventories at historic lows; 3. Favorable liquidity for financial-asset plays like silver over commodity-driven metals.
BOC Securities argues silver’s catch-up potential exceeds gold’s. While gold remains in an uptrend, its near-term consolidation hinges on synchronized "real rate declines" and "dollar weakness." Silver offers clearer short-term upside, supported by industrial demand (e.g., solar panels) and historically low inventories.
**Related Stocks:** - **ZIJIN MINING (02899)**: This global mining giant (silver, copper, zinc) benefits from rising metal prices and lithium sector exposure. Q3 2025 revenue grew 10.33% YoY to 254.2 billion yuan, with net profit up 55.45% to 37.864 billion yuan. - **CHI SILVER GP (00815)**: A LBMA-accredited producer of 99.999% pure silver, the company operates across manufacturing, retail, and trading. 2024 revenue fell 20.97% to 4.319 billion yuan, with net profit down 31.5% to 9.966 million yuan. - **JIANGXI COPPER (00358)**: A major Chinese silver producer, its LBMA-registered "Jiangxi Copper" brand holds global recognition. Though silver contributes just 3.25% of revenue, stable byproduct output from copper/gold smelting could deliver incremental gains if prices rally further.
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