A recent research report indicates that the coal import volume contraction trend is slowing down, with July showing a marginal deceleration in year-over-year negative growth and positive month-over-month growth. The anti-involution measures in July helped stabilize and rebound domestic coal prices, while domestic raw coal production contracted both year-over-year and month-over-month. The domestic supply gap has boosted import coal demand to some extent. As coal prices continue to rise beyond expectations, coal stock performance recovery is anticipated. Key focus should be on elastic targets including Huayang New Material Technology Group Co., Ltd. (600348.SH), Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co., Ltd. (601001.SH), Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co., Ltd. (600546.SH), and Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co., Ltd. (601699.SH).
**Coal Import Volume Contraction Trend Slows, Import Prices Decline**
Regarding import volumes, the cumulative growth rate for January-July reached -13%, with cumulative coal imports still showing a contraction trend. Although July maintained negative year-over-year growth for the fifth consecutive month, the negative growth rate showed marginal deceleration and positive month-over-month growth, with July coal imports down 22.94% year-over-year and up 7.78% month-over-month.
By coal type, all coal varieties still showed negative year-over-year growth, but only anthracite showed negative month-over-month growth. Coking coal increases mainly came from Outer Mongolia and Russia; thermal coal increases mainly from Australia; and lignite increases mainly from Indonesia.
In terms of pricing, the overall coal import price reached $67/ton, maintaining a year-over-year declining trend, with July showing a month-over-month decrease of $6.23/ton. By coal type, all coal variety import prices showed significant declines compared to the same period last year, with all coal types showing month-over-month price declines in July.
**Domestic Supply Gap Drives Import Demand**
July's anti-involution measures helped stabilize and rebound domestic coal prices, with domestic raw coal production contracting both year-over-year and month-over-month. The domestic supply gap has boosted import coal demand to some extent. Structurally, coking coal already showed changes in June, and in July, with the peak season arrival, thermal coal and lignite followed the coking coal trend, while anthracite continued to show accelerated contraction.
**Future Import Growth Remains to be Observed**
Despite increased import volumes, import prices have not risen with the volume increase. The "volume up, price down" characteristic may signal that overseas supply-demand structure has not significantly improved. Considering recent domestic "anti-involution" calls and stable growth expectations for many coal downstream industries, future coal demand expectations remain uncertain. Whether the divergence between domestic and imported coal price differentials will continue to drive import volume recovery remains to be observed.
**Investment Recommendations:**
As coal prices continue to rise beyond expectations, coal stock performance recovery is anticipated. Key focus should be on elastic targets including Huayang New Material Technology Group Co., Ltd., Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co., Ltd., Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co., Ltd., Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co., Ltd., Shanxi Coking Coal Group Co., Ltd., Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd., and Huaibei Mining Holdings Co., Ltd. Leading coal companies such as Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited, China Coal Energy Company Limited, and China Shenhua Energy Company Limited still maintain high allocation value.
**Risk Warning:** Domestic demand below expectations, significant increase in domestic supply, and substantial decline in international coal prices.
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