Special Topic: 2026 Global and China Capital Markets Outlook Forum
On January 15, the 2026 Global and China Capital Markets Outlook Forum was held, gathering numerous experts to discuss the new logic of wealth creation and the future of capital markets in the AI era.
Liu Gang, Managing Director of the Research Department and Chief Analyst of Overseas and Hong Kong Stock Strategy at CICC, delivered a keynote speech.
Regarding US stocks, Liu Gang believes excessive pessimism is unnecessary, and investors should even be wary of overheating risks. From a segmented perspective, the AI sector in the US market has not yet reached bubble levels. Even if it trends towards a bubble in the future, investors should not exit prematurely. Current market expectations for AI are relatively high and require subsequent fundamental performance to catch up. On the fiscal front, although the scale of US fiscal expansion in 2026 is smaller than in 2025, there is potential for upside surprises. Funds and physical investment plans promoted by Trump for the midterm elections, not approved by Congress, are expected to boost demand for strong cyclical sectors in the first quarter. Overall, while US stock valuations are debated, there remains 10%-15% growth potential on the earnings side, leading to a generally positive outlook.
Concerning the US dollar's trajectory, Liu Gang expects it will not weaken significantly and may even strengthen slightly. The core logic remains anchored to the credit cycle and fundamentals. Regarding gold, he introduced a new perspective: if the gold price rises to $5,500, it would establish two equally powerful credit creation systems. "De-dollarization" should not be extrapolated indefinitely, as some countries' actions of increasing holdings of both US Treasuries and gold reflect diversified choices within the credit system. The value of Hong Kong as a gateway will become increasingly prominent as external conditions tighten.
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