Market Analysis: On March 5, escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran drove oil prices sharply higher, increasing global inflationary pressures and dampening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This spurred demand for cash, triggering sell-offs in equities, bonds, gold, and silver, which weighed on gold prices. Despite this, the pullback is viewed as a healthy correction. Safe-haven demand is expected to drive funds back into the gold market, and long-term central bank buying continues to support the structural bull case for gold.
Gold Technical Analysis: From a daily chart perspective, gold has shown a clear pattern since last November: after each sharp decline, it gradually recovers through consolidation, eventually reaching new all-time highs. Although Tuesday's session closed with a large bearish candle, the price remains within an ascending channel, holding above the critical 5000 level, which serves as the short-term trend divider. Typically, after a significant drop, the following day often sees consolidation. As long as Tuesday's low holds and the key 5000 support remains intact, the market is likely to resume its stepwise,震荡上行 pattern.
On the hourly chart, Wednesday's Asian session saw consecutive bullish candles testing the channel resistance near 5187–5190 before pulling back. The price found support near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 5122 and rebounded, with the European session pushing to new intraday highs. This short-term move is considered a corrective rebound rather than a full reversal. Immediate resistance is observed near 5200, with further resistance at the 5260 level, a key conversion point. Support is seen between 5160–5170. If this support zone is breached effectively, gold could weaken further, potentially retesting prior lows. Traders may watch for stabilization near the 61.8% retracement level from the overnight low. As long as support at 5160–5170 holds, a secondary rebound remains possible.
Silver Technical Analysis: Silver is currently trading within an ascending channel, with the lower boundary providing key support near the 80 level. Following Tuesday's sharp decline, Wednesday's action has been characterized by a corrective rebound. Resistance is noted near 88, which coincides with both a previous support-turned-resistance level and the 66-period moving average on the hourly chart. A failure to break above this resistance could lead to a pullback.
Silver's bounce on Wednesday suggests a震荡向上 rebound, but a second rally may face selling pressure. Short-term support is seen at the mid-channel level of 84, with key support remaining between 80–81. As long as any secondary decline holds above the overnight low of 77.9, silver is expected to gradually recover through consolidation.
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