Gold prices currently benefit from solid fundamental support due to cooling US inflation data, while escalating Middle East conflicts provide strong safe-haven momentum. In the short term, gold is expected to maintain strong fluctuations within the $4000-$4100 range. However, investors must closely monitor two key risks: firstly, if oil prices remain persistently high, it could reignite inflation expectations and limit gold's upside potential; secondly, if US-Iran tensions unexpectedly ease or a new agreement is reached, oil prices could fall sharply, alleviating inflation concerns and potentially providing a new wave of upward momentum for gold. For gold investors, the current environment presents both opportunities and challenges. The positive effects of PPI data may continue to unfold in the coming weeks, and any developments in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger significant price volatility. Amid heightened global uncertainty, gold's role as a wealth preservation tool remains prominent. It is advisable for investors to maintain flexible strategies, monitor subsequent statements from Federal Reserve officials and the latest developments in the Middle East, and manage risks effectively.
Overall, despite increased short-term volatility, gold is expected to maintain relatively strong performance under the dual narratives of moderating inflation and geopolitical risks. This trading session will focus on the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 16 and the US June retail sales month-on-month rate (commonly known as the "Terror Data"), which investors should pay close attention to.
Technical Perspective
From the current chart perspective, the overall trend for gold is dominated by bearish forces, with continuous downward pressure releasing and a clear weak pattern. Technically, on the daily chart, moving averages are arranged in a bearish pattern, with prices repeatedly suppressed below short-term moving averages. Each minor rebound fails to hold above key resistance levels, quickly falling back after rising, leaving long upper shadow candlesticks, which is typical of a consolidation within a downtrend. Resistance above is noted around 4070-4100. On the 4-hour chart, prices are also operating within a downward channel, moving close to the lower Bollinger Band with weak short-term recovery momentum, making it difficult to reverse the overall downward structure. Support around 3980 is being tested; a break below could easily trigger stop-loss selling pressure, accelerating the decline further.
Summary and Trading Strategy
Based on the above analysis, it is suggested to consider short positions near 4070, with a stop-loss above 4090, targeting 4030-4000. If the price does not break above 4080, long positions could be considered above that level.
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