Global bond markets rallied on Thursday following a "whatever it takes" signal from the US Treasury Secretary aimed at curbing the relentless rise in long-term Treasury yields, a statement that quickly sent ripples through financial markets worldwide.
However, as long as the US economy maintains its resilience, AI-related capital expenditure continues to drive corporate issuance of long-term debt, and elevated commodity prices once again stoke inflationary pressures, the Treasury's buyback operations may only alter the pace of yield increases rather than their ultimate direction.
As discussed in Tatiana Darie's analysis, the latest survey results show that the proportion of respondents expecting Treasury yields to continue climbing has reached a record high.
Beyond the US government itself, persistently high long-end rates, coupled with an intensifying wave of bond issuance from hyperscale cloud service providers, are increasingly becoming the foremost concerns among survey participants.
Although the short end of the yield curve remains anchored by expectations of near-term Federal Reserve policy, rising inflation expectations combined with structural factors pushing up the term premium continue to pose ongoing challenges for the long end. Against this backdrop, long-dated bonds are likely to weaken further.
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