CMSC: A-Shares Likely to Consolidate in November with Structural Opportunities in Emerging Industries

Stock News11-03

CMSC (China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd.) released a research report stating that the A-share market is expected to consolidate in November, building momentum for potential year-end index-level rallies. Following the conclusion of U.S.-China trade talks, Q3 earnings season, and the Fourth Plenum, the market has entered a temporary vacuum period lacking major earnings catalysts, policy direction, or decisive events. As a result, November may see range-bound trading as investors await year-end developments.

Despite muted economic data and limited policy catalysts, structural opportunities persist in emerging industries such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, innovative drugs, and solid-state batteries. Additionally, with 2026 approaching—a potential inflection year for synchronized U.S.-China growth—investors could consider early positioning in cyclical resource sectors. Thus, November presents a trading window focused on "niche sectors" and "early-cycle allocations."

**Key Views**: 1. **Market Outlook**: Consolidation is likely as the market awaits fresh catalysts post-Central Economic Work Conference. Q3 corporate earnings improved notably due to low base effects, resource/tech sector rebounds, and financial sector gains from capital market activity. However, stable economic expectations and absent policy shifts may limit upside. 2. **Liquidity & Capital Flows**: Incremental funds are expected to maintain steady inflows, supported by margin financing and sector/thematic ETFs. Domestic liquidity remains accommodative, while Fed rate-cut expectations may fluctuate, temporarily strengthening the USD. 3. **Sector Recommendations**: Focus on: - **Electronics** (consumer electronics, semiconductors) - **Power Equipment** (batteries, PV/wind equipment) - **Automobiles** (components, commercial vehicles) - **Machinery** (industrial/automation equipment) - **Defense** High-growth or recovering sectors like TMT, advanced manufacturing, and select resources (e.g., industrial metals, energy metals) also warrant attention.

**AI Infrastructure Shift**: At NVIDIA’s October GTC conference, the company repositioned itself as a "national AI infrastructure provider," signaling a shift from chip-level innovation to systemic, industrial-scale solutions. This underscores AI’s transition from lab-centric R&D to platform-driven industrialization.

**Risks**: Weaker-than-expected economic data, policy misinterpretations, or overseas monetary tightening.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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