CMSC (China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd.) released a research report stating that the A-share market is expected to consolidate in November, building momentum for potential year-end index-level rallies. Following the conclusion of U.S.-China trade talks, Q3 earnings season, and the Fourth Plenum, the market has entered a temporary vacuum period lacking major earnings catalysts, policy direction, or decisive events. As a result, November may see range-bound trading as investors await year-end developments.
Despite muted economic data and limited policy catalysts, structural opportunities persist in emerging industries such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, innovative drugs, and solid-state batteries. Additionally, with 2026 approaching—a potential inflection year for synchronized U.S.-China growth—investors could consider early positioning in cyclical resource sectors. Thus, November presents a trading window focused on "niche sectors" and "early-cycle allocations."
**Key Views**: 1. **Market Outlook**: Consolidation is likely as the market awaits fresh catalysts post-Central Economic Work Conference. Q3 corporate earnings improved notably due to low base effects, resource/tech sector rebounds, and financial sector gains from capital market activity. However, stable economic expectations and absent policy shifts may limit upside. 2. **Liquidity & Capital Flows**: Incremental funds are expected to maintain steady inflows, supported by margin financing and sector/thematic ETFs. Domestic liquidity remains accommodative, while Fed rate-cut expectations may fluctuate, temporarily strengthening the USD. 3. **Sector Recommendations**: Focus on: - **Electronics** (consumer electronics, semiconductors) - **Power Equipment** (batteries, PV/wind equipment) - **Automobiles** (components, commercial vehicles) - **Machinery** (industrial/automation equipment) - **Defense** High-growth or recovering sectors like TMT, advanced manufacturing, and select resources (e.g., industrial metals, energy metals) also warrant attention.
**AI Infrastructure Shift**: At NVIDIA’s October GTC conference, the company repositioned itself as a "national AI infrastructure provider," signaling a shift from chip-level innovation to systemic, industrial-scale solutions. This underscores AI’s transition from lab-centric R&D to platform-driven industrialization.
**Risks**: Weaker-than-expected economic data, policy misinterpretations, or overseas monetary tightening.
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