On September 30, gold extended its rebound during the daytime session to repair technical indicators, but resistance overhead is dense and bullish momentum is expected to be limited.
On the news front, New York Fed President Williams released a dovish signal overnight, saying there is "no need to rush" after the September rate hike. Market bets on an October hike fell from 70% to about 50%, giving gold a brief breather. However, this is merely a marginal loosening at the expectations level, not a policy pivot, and the overall pressure on gold remains unchanged.
Technically, 4195 forms the first resistance overhead during the daytime session. Above that, attention turns to the daily MA5 moving average pressure at 4208 and the 4-hour MA30 moving average at 4224. A rebound into this area will face strong selling pressure. On the downside, support is first seen at 4165, followed by 4142. If breached effectively, the short-term trend will officially turn bearish, extending downward momentum, with further attention on this week's low of 4110.
Liu Mingcheng believes the current rebound is not a reversal. This week's candlestick pattern shows a flat-top bearish candle in control, with bears still holding the initiative. Today's rebound is expected to reach a maximum of only 4224—4232 before a significant pullback follows.
In terms of trading, pressure in the resistance zone can be seen as an opportunity to sell on rallies, while a breakdown below support requires following the trend. Gold reference strategy: current real-time quote at 4182.
1. Sell on the first rebound touch of 4194—4198, stop loss at 4202, targets 4178—4165; 2. Buy on the first pullback touch of 4168—4165, stop loss at 4160, targets 4180—4195; 3. Place sell orders at 4222 and 4232 above, stop loss at 4242, targets 4200—4150, hold if broken below.
The core driver of oil prices coming under pressure again comes from multiple bearish factors converging on the supply side. Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline has restored about half of its throughput capacity, and the Yanbu port has resumed loading, allowing a key alternative channel bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to function again.
However, the tight physical supply situation has not fundamentally changed. Brent spot quotes remain around $120, and although the WTI cash-to-futures spread has narrowed somewhat, it remains at extreme levels. The market is in a state of "diplomatic expectations and supply risks pulling against each other," making it difficult for oil prices to form a one-sided trend in the short term.
Technically: daily chart reversal signals are emerging. Despite bearish news flow, the technical structure is releasing bottom signals worth watching. After WTI experienced a rapid decline, the daily Z-turn indicator has already given a bottom signal, suggesting downward momentum may be exhausting.
On the downside, support first focuses on the $90 mark, a key area recently contested repeatedly between bulls and bears. If lost, the next support is seen near $88.7, which coincides with the previous low and the 50-day moving average area, carrying strong technical support significance. Extreme support is seen at the weekly Bollinger Band middle rail at $86.2.
It is worth noting that the weekly chart has shown three consecutive bearish candles, with short-term bearish forces dominating. But after continuous declines, prices are gradually approaching the medium-term support band, and the risk-reward ratio of further shorting is declining.
Upside resistance is watched in sequence at 94.2—95.2—96.5. Today's approach suggests intraday shorting, with long positions looking for gains in the evening session. Oil reference strategy: current real-time quote at 92.4.
1. Go long at 90.2 and 89.3 below, stop loss at 88.5, targets 92.5—94.5—96.5; 2. Sell on a rebound in the 94.5—95 area, stop loss at 95.5, targets 93.2—92.1; 3. Place a buy order at the low of 86.5, stop loss at 85.5, targets 90—93—97.
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