高盛悄悄发布“衰退手册”：假如衰退降临，该如何操作？

华尔街见闻2022-05-20

高盛表示，在衰退前的12个月里，防御型和优质型股票的表现通常优于其他类型股票；在衰退期间，能源、日用消费品、医疗保健等行业板块通常能跑赢大盘。随着对滞涨的恐惧正转变为对经济衰退的恐惧，华尔街已经开始未雨绸缪。近日，在发布一份“即将到来的衰退”中表现强劲的股票名单的两天后，高盛开始悄悄向其专业订户分发《衰退手册》，该行在报告中讨论了标普500指数的价格、收益、估值以及行业和要素在以往衰退中的表现，给...

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Youn7276
2022-05-23
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2022-05-22
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2022-05-21
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1千变4千万
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2022-05-21
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Kostin在报告中表示：“我们的经济学家估计，美国经济在未来两年内进入衰退的可能性为35%，而且从收益率曲线来看，美国经济出现收缩的可能性也与之类似。”他同时承认，美国资产迎来大轮换，表明投资者正在消化美国经济越来越有可能出现衰退的预期。自1月以来，周期型股票与防御型股票的相对表现下降了17%（前者下降19%，后者下降2%），而这两种股票的相对表现与ISM制造业指数走势密切相关。目前ISM指数为55，因此17%的降幅意味着ISM指数将降至50以下，即美国经济将收缩进而进入衰退。此外，股息期货市场暗示，标普500指数成份股公司的股息将在2023年下降近5%。这一点意义重大，因为在过去的60年里，标普500指数成份股公司的股息在经济衰退之外从未下降过。”衰退启示录不过，高盛认为“衰退并非不可避免”，该行在报告中讨论了标普500指数的价格、收益、估值以及行业和要素在以往衰退中的表现，给想要抵御经济衰退的投资者一些启示。从价格来看，在二战以来的12次衰退中，标普500指数从峰值到谷底的跌幅中值为24%。如果标普500指数按照跌幅中值从2022年1月近4800点的峰值下跌，那么它将在3650点附近触底。如果按照跌幅平均数计算，它将在3360点触底。截至隔夜美股收盘，标普500指数报3900.79点，年初至今累计跌幅已经超过18%。从时间来看，在二战以来的12次衰退中，股票市场在美国国家经济研究局（NBER）官方定义的“衰退”前的7个月便开始对其进行定价，具体表现为市场在衰退前见顶，然后在衰退结束前见底。历史上，只有2000年的经济衰退例外，股市在衰退结束后整整8个月才触底，从见顶到触底持续了整整30个月。从劳动力市场来看，根据高盛整理的数据，股市底部通常与每周首次申领失业救济金人数的峰值呈现出某种联系。在大多数情况下，市场在首申人数达到峰值前触底。美国5月14日当周首次申请失业救济人数21.8万人，为4月以来最高水平，但仍远低于历史平均水平，更不用说新冠疫情期间的记录了。从每股收益来看，自1948年以来，标普500指数的每股收益在衰退期间从峰值到谷底的降幅中值为13%。在跌至谷底的四个季度后，每股收益回升幅度中值为17%。在过去的四次衰退中，衰退开始前6个月每股收益普遍预期的修正幅度通常在-6%至-18%之间，中值为-10%。在经济衰退开始后的6个月里，分析师估计每股收益降幅为-13%。在衰退开始前后的12个月期间，估计每股收益降幅为-22%。从估值来看，从衰退前的峰值到最终的最低值，标普500指数的预期市盈率降幅中值为21%。在1980年开始的一场衰退中，标普500指数市盈率从见顶到衰退开始期间历经8个月，降幅为15%。从行业来看，在衰退前的12个月里，防御型和优质型股票的表现通常优于其他类型股票。在1981年以来的5次衰退期间，能源、日用消费品、医疗保健和公用事业的平均表现都超过标普500指数。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9028241577,"gmtCreate":1653257145099,"gmtModify":1676535245303,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028241577","repostId":1177266080,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9028304724,"gmtCreate":1653171088868,"gmtModify":1676535232276,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028304724","repostId":1177266080,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9021780354,"gmtCreate":1653101865678,"gmtModify":1676535224907,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021780354","repostId":1177266080,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9021715902,"gmtCreate":1653101639207,"gmtModify":1676535224845,"author":{"id":"4113702377396762","authorId":"4113702377396762","name":"1千变4千万","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26e385c1cc9da23041281c653e085730","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4113702377396762","authorIdStr":"4113702377396762"},"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021715902","repostId":1177266080,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9021711478,"gmtCreate":1653101334994,"gmtModify":1676535224767,"author":{"id":"3577362879194763","authorId":"3577362879194763","name":"ivyteo6911","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b70214e6e148476bcc23102cef4a8dc3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577362879194763","authorIdStr":"3577362879194763"},"htmlText":"🙏🙏🙏","listText":"🙏🙏🙏","text":"🙏🙏🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021711478","repostId":1177266080,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9021418235,"gmtCreate":1653093838327,"gmtModify":1676535221961,"author":{"id":"3577362879194763","authorId":"3577362879194763","name":"ivyteo6911","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b70214e6e148476bcc231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