According to Zhitong Finance APP, GF Securities Co.,Ltd. (ASX: 000776) has released a research report stating that for baijiu, after four years of adjustment, the sector is expected to usher in a new round of development in 2026. For mass consumer goods, some sub-sectors took the lead in stabilizing in 2025, and looking ahead to 2026, industry tonnage prices are expected to rise moderately, with optimism for individual stock opportunities driven by new products and new channels. The main views of GF SEC (ASX: 01776) are as follows.
2026 Autumn Sugar and Liquor Fair Tracking: Industry Still at the Bottom, Leaders Relatively Stable
Baijiu channel feedback: demand during the double festivals was flat, while prices held firm. Distributors generally reported that sell-through during the double festivals declined year on year, demand from business activity scenarios remained weak, personal consumption was relatively better, terminal inventory levels and willingness to restock were both at low levels, and channel inventory destocking was slow, but after the holidays wholesale prices of major products performed better than expected.
Grassroots feedback from the Autumn Sugar Fair hotel exhibition: overall quiet, with shifting trends. Foot traffic at the baijiu hotel exhibition was quiet, enthusiasm for exhibiting and visiting was low, strong-aroma, light-aroma, and sauce-aroma products were more balanced, the price bands of displayed products clearly moved lower, and livestream selling of liquor was prevalent on site, while booths for liqueur and health liquor increased noticeably. The beer exhibition still focused on flavored craft beer, with no obvious flavor innovation. The beverage exhibition focused on juice, dairy drinks, and medicinal-food homologous drinks, while enthusiasm for energy drinks from small manufacturers and sugar-free tea products clearly declined.
Grassroots feedback from Nanjing baijiu terminals: the double festivals were quiet, and terminals were rational. Terminal owners generally reported weak sell-through during the double festivals and no further willingness to stock up after the holidays. Current terminal displays were concentrated on core major single products, and among mainstream brands in the Nanjing baijiu market, Moutai, Wuliangye, Guoyuan, and Jiannanchun led in sell-through.
Feedback from the Weijiu forum: demand was weak, and divergence intensified. Demand during the double festivals was sluggish, the industry cycle entered stock competition, and concentration among leading players still has room to rise, but whether this supports sustained rapid growth for leading enterprises still needs observation. The future is a test of corporate capability rather than simply a rise in concentration.
Market Review: Food and Beverage Sector Outperformed the Broader Market by 4.0pct in September
In September, food and beverage sub-industries diverged. At the second-level sub-industry level, only non-baijiu rose significantly, while at the third-level sub-industry level, other alcoholic beverages, prepared foods, and dairy products led gains. Stock Connect: in September, stocks with larger southbound net buying included Tsingtao Brewery, Guoquan, and COFCO Joycome, while stocks with larger net selling included H&H.
Sector valuation: absolute and relative valuations of food and beverage are at lows since 2010.
Fundamental Tracking: Sentiment in Some Sub-Industries Improved Marginally in September
Baijiu: weak sell-through during the Mid-Autumn and National Day double festivals was in line with expectations. Industry sell-through during the double festivals is expected to decline slightly year on year, with growth weakening compared with July-August, but wholesale prices were relatively stable after the holidays, showing that industry expectations are relatively rational.
Mass consumer goods: sentiment in some sub-industries improved month on month in September. As weather turned colder, industries such as frozen foods began to enter peak season, and snack discount stores continued their previous store-opening trend.
Costs: cost trends diverged, with prices of soybeans, soybean meal, and raw milk showing positive growth.
Risk Warning
Macroeconomic performance may fall short of expectations, recovery in consumer spending power may fall short of expectations, and food safety issues may arise.
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