Abstract
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. will release its quarterly results on February 09, 2026, Pre-Market; this preview summarizes last quarter’s performance, the company’s guidance and market expectations, and analyst perspectives on the upcoming print.
Market Forecast
Based on current projections, Pagaya Technologies Ltd.’s revenue for the to-be-reported quarter is forecast at USD 347.40 million, up 31.04% year-over-year, with estimated EBIT at USD 79.60 million and estimated EPS at USD 0.34; the last-reported gross profit margin was 42.72%, the net profit margin was 6.44%, and consensus expectations imply continued double-digit top-line expansion with improving earnings efficiency. The company’s platform-driven core operations are expected to maintain solid momentum, with emphasis on scaled network activity and underwriting discipline. The most promising segment is the scaled transaction and fee engine underpinning platform revenues, which remains central to the revenue trajectory and shows the potential to extend year-over-year growth above the consolidated rate.
Last Quarter Review
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported last quarter revenue of USD 350.17 million, gross profit margin of 42.72%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 22.55 million, net profit margin of 6.44%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.23, with year-over-year growth in adjusted EPS of 124.73% and revenue of 36.13%. The quarter featured stronger-than-expected execution, with EBIT of USD 79.96 million exceeding internal and external estimates and demonstrating disciplined expense control alongside stable conversion economics. Main business highlights centered on platform transaction activity and related fee streams, supported by scaled network integrations and prudent risk management; revenue increased to USD 350.17 million, up 36.13% year-over-year.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core Platform Revenue and Transaction Economics
This quarter’s outlook for Pagaya Technologies Ltd.’s core platform remains anchored by a forecast revenue of USD 347.40 million, reflecting a 31.04% year-over-year increase. The gross profit margin foundation from the last quarter, at 42.72%, sets a benchmark for near-term mix and fee yield stability, while the net profit margin of 6.44% indicates ongoing operating leverage opportunities as volumes scale. With estimated EBIT at USD 79.60 million and estimated EPS at USD 0.34, the company appears positioned to translate growth into earnings, supported by a focus on underwriting discipline and portfolio quality. Operationally, transaction velocity across demand partners is likely to hold at healthy levels, though management attention to credit normalization, macro-sensitive approval rates, and capital partner appetite will determine incremental margin outcomes. A key watchpoint is whether fee yield can remain resilient as volumes shift by cohort; if the company sustains favorable conversion on its network, earnings should track toward the estimate range.
Most Promising Growth Engine
The most promising business engine is the scaled transaction and fee framework that drives platform revenues. It underpins the company’s ability to grow while managing credit dispersion across cohorts, which supports consistent fee yields and utilization of capital commitments. With consolidated revenue growth forecast at 31.04% year-over-year to USD 347.40 million and last quarter EBIT tracking at USD 79.96 million, this engine remains integral to sustaining earnings quality. As the network matures, incremental partners and integrations can contribute to throughput growth, while improvements in model precision can aid approval efficiency and mitigate loss-rate volatility. The near-term path relies on disciplined risk selection and the mix of funded volumes; if those inputs remain stable, fee expansion can match or exceed top-line growth rates, reinforcing the earnings trajectory.
Share Price Drivers This Quarter
The principal drivers of Pagaya Technologies Ltd.’s share price this quarter will likely include revenue realization versus the USD 347.40 million estimate, margin resilience relative to the 42.72% gross profit margin baseline, and EPS delivery against the USD 0.34 forecast. A beat on EBIT compared to the USD 79.60 million estimate would signal stronger operating leverage and bolster sentiment, particularly if achieved with balanced expense growth and stable cost of capital. Investors will also assess credit performance indicators tied to the company’s underwriting and capital partner channels, as degradation in cohort performance or tighter funding conditions could pressure fee yields and profitability. Conversely, evidence of sustained demand partner expansion and improved model accuracy would support the narrative of durable growth and help validate the earnings power implied by the estimates. The stock’s reaction will be sensitive to commentary on capital supply, approval rate calibration, and any updates to throughput expectations for the remaining fiscal periods.
Analyst Opinions
Analyst and institutional commentary in recent months has leaned constructive, focusing on above-consensus execution last quarter and an improving earnings profile supported by operating leverage. Positively oriented views highlight the company’s delivery of USD 79.96 million in EBIT versus prior expectations and adjusted EPS of USD 0.23, arguing that the current quarter’s USD 79.60 million EBIT and USD 0.34 EPS forecasts are attainable if fee yield remains stable and risk selection holds. The bullish camp emphasizes network scale benefits and disciplined underwriting as key supports for year-over-year revenue growth of 31.04% to USD 347.40 million. Several institutions have underscored the importance of margin sustainability against the 42.72% gross profit margin benchmark, contending that consistent conversion economics, measured expense growth, and capital partner alignment can carry earnings higher. Overall, the prevailing view anticipates a constructive print, with revenue and EBIT tracking near estimates, and points to incremental upside if management signals stable credit trends and confirms ongoing partner expansion for the remainder of the year.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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