Energy market analyst Sankey has issued a stern warning, stating that the global oil market could face a "sustained and absolute catastrophe" over the next two months, with the severity of supply disruptions far exceeding market expectations.
Sankey pointed out that the market is currently experiencing a dual shock of "five-year low inventories" and "massive supply disruptions." The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already resulted in a daily supply shortfall of approximately 13 million barrels of oil, with the cumulative supply disruption reaching 180 million barrels. He emphasized that while alternative routes, such as pipelines, are possible, their capacity is far from sufficient to compensate for the massive supply gap.
This assessment aligns with predictions from several top investment banks. Citibank warned that if shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist for another month, global crude oil inventory losses could rise to 1.3 billion barrels, potentially driving oil prices up to $110 per barrel. Should the disruption continue for two months, prices could even be pushed as high as $130. Goldman Sachs also believes that, under a scenario of continued supply uncertainty, oil prices could surge in the short term, potentially surpassing previous historical peaks.
Despite recent announcements from the US and Iran regarding an extended truce, Barclays cautioned the market against excessive optimism, as energy transport has not substantially resumed, and supply disruptions have now persisted for over 50 days. Currently, global markets are closely monitoring the situation's development, preparing for a potential severe supply crisis in the coming months.
Comments