A recent analysis reveals that the June heatwave in Europe has led to grain crop value losses surpassing €2 billion, with France and Hungary being the hardest hit. According to data from the European grain traders' association Coceral, grain production forecasts for the EU and the UK were reduced by nearly 9 million tonnes in the four weeks following the heatwave.
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit's analysis estimates that the lost production, valued using domestic farm-gate prices for wheat, barley, corn, and other grains, amounts to approximately €2.1 billion, representing about 5% of the estimated 2025 production value. Coceral indicated that the heatwave struck during the critical grain filling period, impacting wheat crops in central and southern France, southern Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary. Spring barley was more severely affected than winter barley, which had largely matured before the extreme temperatures arrived.
Meteorological data shows that this June was the hottest on record in Western Europe, with temperatures averaging 3 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 norm. France saw highs exceeding 43°C, while Hungary's peak surpassed 40°C. A farmer in eastern France, who grows grains and raises beef cattle, stated that despite a decade of efforts to build farm resilience through cover crops, crop rotation, and heat- and drought-tolerant varieties, consecutive weeks of temperatures above 38°C had undone all that work, with expected crop losses for soybeans and others of at least 50% to as much as 70%.
Roughly half of the forecast reduction in European grain output is attributed to corn, primarily used for livestock feed, which faced the heatwave during its pollination period in France and Hungary. Coceral revised down the corn production forecast for the EU and UK from 57.2 million tonnes to 52.7 million tonnes. In poor harvest years, the EU is a net importer of corn, and the shortfall could increase demand for supplies from countries like Ukraine and Brazil. Reduced French harvests may also lower wheat export supplies to buyers in North and West Africa, while rising feed costs could impact livestock producers in the coming months.
France accounts for nearly half of the grain losses, with its production forecast cut by 4.1 million tonnes. At current prices, this is valued at around €891 million, with the majority stemming from corn, whose forecast was lowered by 3.35 million tonnes to 9.4 million tonnes—even below the production level during the severe drought of 2022. Hungary ranks second in losses, with its grain forecast reduced by 2.4 million tonnes, valued at approximately €444 million. Spain faces a loss of 1.4 million tonnes (€276 million), while Germany's forecast reduction is similar in volume but valued at about €233 million. The analysis notes that for Hungarian farmers, the situation is exacerbated as domestic producer prices have fallen due to an influx of cheaper grain from the Black Sea region near harvest time, meaning growers face yield losses without the partial compensation that higher prices could provide.
An analyst from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit pointed out that this will directly reduce farmer incomes and harm European food security. This valuation represents the market value of the lost production deducted from harvest forecasts, not the loss of farm profits. Upward revisions to harvest forecasts in Bulgaria, Romania, Italy, and Finland reduced the net change in Europe's expected production value to about €1.79 billion. Under different price assumptions, the total value of lost crops ranges between €2 billion and €2.3 billion. EU governments are currently negotiating the future of the Common Agricultural Policy, with some policy officials stating that subsidies are not being used to enhance climate resilience but continue to fund harmful practices that directly exacerbate the crisis, creating a costly and unsustainable feedback loop.
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