AI-driven demand for DRAM is surging dramatically, pushing Cxmt Corporation onto a new growth trajectory.
According to reports from a market tracking desk, Goldman Sachs has released its latest research report, maintaining a "Buy" rating on Cxmt Corporation and slightly raising its 12-month price target from 129 yuan to 130 yuan. The direct catalyst for this upward revision is the third-quarter earnings preview disclosed by Cxmt Corporation — Goldman Sachs expects the company's Q3 revenue range to be between 115 billion and 120 billion yuan, representing quarter-on-quarter growth of 15% to 20%, with the midpoint approximately 30% higher than Goldman's previous forecast.
This better-than-expected guidance, combined with the company's announcement that its fifth-generation DRAM technology platform (G5) will officially enter mass production in September 2026, further reinforces Goldman Sachs analysts' assessment of Cxmt Corporation's medium-to-long-term growth logic. Goldman Sachs accordingly raised its earnings forecasts for the company from 2026 to 2030 and characterized it as a core beneficiary of the domestic DRAM demand upcycle.
The company's current share price is approximately 40 yuan, implying upside potential of as much as 225% based on Goldman Sachs' price target. It is worth noting that Cxmt Corporation has recently declined significantly, with its current market capitalization having fallen below 3 trillion yuan.
Q3 Guidance Substantially Beats Expectations, Net Profit Strengthens in Tandem
The midpoint of Cxmt Corporation's Q3 revenue guidance is approximately 117.5 billion yuan, roughly 30% higher than Goldman Sachs' previous forecast. Goldman Sachs analysts Allen Chang, Verena Jeng, and Ting Song attributed this better-than-expected performance to three key drivers in their report: sustained AI applications pulling demand for server DRAM and HBM, downstream customers proactively diversifying their supply chain layouts, and DRAM prices remaining at elevated levels.
On the net profit front, the company's Q3 net profit guidance range is 53 billion to 55 billion yuan, representing slight quarter-on-quarter growth, with the midpoint approximately 17% higher than Goldman Sachs' previous forecast.
Goldman Sachs simultaneously raised its earnings forecasts from 2026 to 2030 in the report. The fiscal year 2026 revenue forecast was increased from 354.9 billion yuan to 387.5 billion yuan, a gain of approximately 9%; the net profit forecast was raised from 183.8 billion yuan to 191.8 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 4%. On gross margin, Goldman Sachs expects the company's 2026 gross margin to be approximately 81.4%, with a net margin of approximately 49.5%.
Looking ahead to subsequent quarters, Goldman Sachs expects Cxmt Corporation's Q4 revenue to continue its quarter-on-quarter growth trend.
G5 Platform Enters Mass Production, Technology Roadmap Continues to Advance
On the technology front, according to a report, Cxmt Corporation announced in September 2026 that its fifth-generation DRAM technology platform (G5) had officially entered the mass production phase. According to the company, the G5 platform compresses the active-area half-pitch to 11.95 nanometers while reducing the core functional region height to 6,762 nanometers, achieving higher efficiency, lower costs, and greater output alongside performance improvements.
Goldman Sachs gave a positive assessment of this, stating that G5 mass production reflects the company's ability to continuously push into the deep waters of core technology, helps support its competitive position in the domestic DRAM market, and lays the foundation for iteration toward next-generation platforms.
Valuation Methodology and Price Target Rationale
Goldman Sachs values Cxmt Corporation using a discounted P/E method, based on a 2030 forecast earnings per share of 11.2 yuan, multiplied by a target P/E of 16.6 times, then discounted back to 2027 using a cost of equity (COE) of 12.7%, ultimately arriving at a price target of 130 yuan.
The target P/E of 16.6 times is determined based on the correlation between peer P/E ratios and earnings growth rates, corresponding to Cxmt Corporation's average net profit year-on-year growth rate of approximately 21% for fiscal years 2030 to 2031. The current price target implies a 2027 P/E of approximately 24 times.
For the COE calculation, Goldman Sachs used a Beta of 1.5, a risk-free rate of 3.0%, and a market risk premium of 6.5%, resulting in a total COE of 12.7%.
Medium-to-Long-Term Growth Logic: Three-Pronged Drivers of AI, Supply Chain Restructuring, and Capacity Expansion
Goldman Sachs systematically outlined Cxmt Corporation's medium-to-long-term growth logic in the report, summarizing it into three main threads.
First, China's domestic AI demand continues to expand, driving both server DRAM and HBM demand upward, with Cxmt Corporation as a major domestic supplier directly benefiting.
Second, downstream customers, motivated by supply chain security considerations, are proactively advancing supplier diversification, creating sustained order acquisition opportunities for Cxmt Corporation.
Third, the company's own capacity expansion plans provide physical support for revenue growth. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the company's revenue will grow from 387.5 billion yuan in 2026 to approximately 1.39 trillion yuan in 2030, with net profit rising from 191.8 billion yuan to approximately 747.9 billion yuan over the same period.
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