Abstract
Harmonic will report quarterly results on February 19, 2026 Post Market, with the market bracing for a notable year-over-year decline in headline metrics and closely watching segment mix for signs of stabilization.
Market Forecast
The latest market-facing forecast indicates Harmonic’s current-quarter revenue at $141.33 million, down 33.78% year over year, with estimated adjusted EPS at $0.10, down 73.09% year over year, and estimated EBIT at $15.81 million, down 72.59% year over year; margin projections were not disclosed alongside these estimates.
Within the company’s commercial mix, the outlook continues to hinge on normalized broadband deployments and steady video project execution; broadband remains the core driver, while video provides a complementary revenue base expected to track deployment timing and customer order cadence.
The most promising segment by revenue contribution last quarter was Broadband at $90.49 million, with Video at $51.89 million; year-over-year segment growth rates were not disclosed.
Last Quarter Review
Harmonic’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $142.40 million, a gross margin of 54.17%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $2.69 million, a net profit margin of 1.89%, and adjusted EPS of $0.12, with revenue down 27.26% year over year and adjusted EPS down 53.85% year over year.
A notable financial highlight was operating performance relative to expectations: EBIT of $18.98 million exceeded the prior estimate by $9.64 million, reflecting execution strength despite subdued year-over-year comparables.
Main business highlights included segment revenue contributions of $90.49 million from Broadband and $51.89 million from Video; the overall top-line decline of 27.26% year over year underscores the role of deployment timing and order pacing through the quarter.
Current Quarter Outlook
Broadband Segment
Broadband is the largest revenue contributor in Harmonic’s mix, ending the last reported quarter at $90.49 million, and remains pivotal for the near-term print. The current-quarter guidance profile implies a year-over-year decline for consolidated revenue, which places attention on the pace of customer order conversion and deployment schedules in broadband. With the previous quarter’s gross margin at 54.17% and consolidated net profit margin at 1.89%, operating leverage in broadband is likely to be scrutinized, particularly where product and service delivery mix affects gross margin capture. Execution on backlog conversion—turning orders into recognized revenue—should be a central determinant of whether results align with the forecasted contraction. If broadband installations progress within expected windows and cost absorption improves, reported margins could track toward recent levels; conversely, any slippage in deliveries or higher costs would make the headline EPS sensitivity more pronounced this quarter.
Video Segment
Video finished the last reported quarter with $51.89 million in revenue and serves as a complementary stabilizer within Harmonic’s portfolio. The segment’s outcomes typically reflect project timing across customers and the cadence of software and service deliverables, which can cause quarter-to-quarter variations even when demand is present. Given the consolidated revenue estimate of $141.33 million for the current quarter, Video’s consistency will matter for margin continuity: higher software or services content can support gross margin, while a hardware-skewed mix can compress it. The disparity between the adjusted EPS estimate of $0.10 and the prior quarter’s $0.12, alongside the forecasted revenue decline, suggests that margin mix in video, coupled with the scale of broadband shipments, may largely determine EPS movement. If project milestones cluster late in the quarter and revenue recognition aligns accordingly, reported figures could come in closer to the revenue estimate; if milestones shift or are deferred, EPS volatility may expand.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Two near-term variables are likely to exert outsized influence on Harmonic’s share price: the degree to which revenue lands within the $141.33 million estimate and the relationship between product/service mix and margin capture. With a forecast year-over-year decline of 33.78% in revenue, investors will look for signals on the breadth of order intake and the shape of deployment schedules that help explain the contraction and frame the recovery profile. EPS sensitivity appears high—estimated at $0.10, down 73.09% year over year—meaning any deviation in gross margin or opex discipline could significantly alter the print. The last quarter’s EBIT outperformance relative to estimates highlights that execution can still outpace expectations despite top-line pressure; repeating that pattern hinges on operational control and backlog conversion without unexpected costs. Therefore, updated commentary on shipment timing, customer acceptance events, and visibility into the next build cycle will be central to interpreting the report and the immediate price reaction.
Analyst Opinions
Within the January 1, 2026 to February 12, 2026 window, formal institutional previews were limited, and available market commentary points to a cautious stance heading into Harmonic’s report. The degree of revenue contraction embedded in near-term estimates and the steep year-over-year compression in EPS are widely cited as reasons for a guarded view, with attention concentrated on the interplay between segment mix and margin performance to validate any recovery path. The dominant tone among the accessible perspectives in the period leans cautious, emphasizing that the quarter’s outcome will likely be judged on execution against the forecast revenue of $141.33 million, clarity on delivery schedules, and the extent to which adjusted EPS can hold near the $0.10 estimate despite the expected decline year over year. As such, the prevailing opinion favors a careful approach to the current print, with the potential for sentiment to shift quickly if margin and backlog updates point to improved visibility beyond February 19, 2026.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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