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Rebar: Yesterday, rebar futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The rebar 2701 contract on the day session closed at 3,114 yuan per tonne, down 3 yuan from the previous settlement, a decline of 0.1%, with open interest decreasing by 688 lots. Spot prices remained broadly stable while trading volumes declined. In Tangshan, Qian'an plain billet prices held steady at 3,010 yuan per tonne, while in Hangzhou, Zhongtian rebar prices stayed flat at 3,160 yuan per tonne. Nationwide construction steel transaction volume reached 93,200 tonnes. With the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approaching, end-user restocking enthusiasm has picked up, leading to a notable decline in rebar inventories; earlier high inventory pressures are generally manageable. However, hot-rolled coil downstream demand remains weak, with relatively higher inventory pressure. On the cost side, both iron ore and coking coal have retreated, weakening cost support. In the near term, rebar futures are expected to continue fluctuating within a narrow range.
Iron Ore: Yesterday, the main iron ore futures contract, i2701, declined slightly, closing the day session at 708 yuan per tonne, down 7 yuan from the prior settlement, a drop of 0.98%, with a volume of 249,200 lots and open interest increasing by 27,300 lots. Port spot prices edged lower; Rizhao Port's 60.8% PB fines fell 5 yuan to 674 yuan, while Carajas fines held stable at 843 yuan, down 2 yuan. According to Mysteel data, during September 14-20 (2026), iron ore inventories at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil totaled 11.954 million tonnes, an increase of 258,000 tonnes week-on-week. Port inventories rebounded slightly but remain at the second-lowest level since Q3, indicating limited overseas inventory pressure. Although domestic arrivals declined modestly week-on-week, absolute levels remain elevated, with supply remaining broadly ample. In the near term, iron ore prices are expected to continue narrow range-bound trading.
Coking Coal: Yesterday, coking coal futures declined. The coking coal 2701 contract closed at 1,518.5 yuan per tonne in the day session, down 4.5 yuan, a drop of 0.3%, with open interest decreasing by 2,935 lots. On the spot side, Jiexiu main coking coal (A<10.5, S<1.3, G>80) was quoted at 2,230 yuan per tonne, unchanged; Ganqimaodu口岸 Mongolian No.5 raw coal fell 5 yuan to 1,635 yuan, while Mongolian No.3 clean coal remained flat at 1,780 yuan. Driven by stable production and supply assurance policies, Shanxi coking coal output is expected to rise by more than 12.8%. In Qinyuan County, eight mines have resumed production, with another 900,000-tonne capacity mine expected to restart, strengthening supply increment expectations. Under these policy drivers, coking coal supply faces marginal expansion expectations. Although small-scale resumptions have occurred in key production areas like Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, the overall pace of resumption has fallen short of expectations, with operating rates remaining relatively low. Weak finished steel sales have triggered negative feedback transmitting upstream, significantly reducing steel mills' acceptance of high-priced coking coal. Procurement strategies have shifted to need-based restocking limited to essential requirements. This negative feedback continues to suppress raw material demand, with market sentiment clearly turning bearish. Coking coal futures are expected to trade in a volatile pattern in the short term.
Coke: Yesterday, coke futures declined. The coke 2701 contract closed at 1,984 yuan per tonne in the day session, down 1 yuan, a drop of 0.05%, with open interest decreasing by 981 lots. On the spot side, Rizhao Port's quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke price held at 1,930 yuan per tonne, unchanged from the previous period. Coke producers' production restrictions and firm raw coking coal prices have kept industry operating rates at low levels, with coke inventories remaining at low levels. Tight supply supports spot prices, and coke producers have achieved substantive profit recovery, with per-tonne profitability narrowing from deep losses to acceptable margins. This improved profitability has boosted production enthusiasm, with independent coke producers' capacity utilization rates marginally rebounding. High hot metal output underpins essential demand, though steel mill losses constrain procurement flexibility. Daily hot metal output at steel mills remains at elevated levels, with concentrated resumptions at previously maintenance-scheduled mills further strengthening coke consumption. However, overall downstream steel demand remains weak, steel mill profitability is under pressure, and finished steel imposes negative feedback constraints on raw material prices. Coke futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term.
Manganese Silicon: On Tuesday, manganese silicon futures weakened with volatile trading, with the main contract closing at 5,836 yuan per tonne, down 0.03% month-on-month, while open interest fell by 12,499 lots to 278,100 lots. The ferrous complex showed divergent trends yesterday, with alloy prices underperforming and manganese silicon prices drifting lower. Fundamentals indicate modest easing of supply-side pressure ahead, as several producers have announced production halts; however, weekly output continued increasing through last weekend. On the demand side, steel mill tender prices for manganese silicon have declined recently, mostly ranging between 5,810-5,900 yuan per tonne. Weekly demand from sample steel mills rose 0.22% to 111,000 tonnes, still at low absolute levels. Inventories at 63 sample producers stood at 365,700 tonnes, down 18,300 tonnes week-on-week but up 165,800 tonnes year-on-year. Manganese ore prices have remained stable recently with minimal changes. Overall, near-term fundamentals lack directional catalysts, and manganese silicon prices are expected to remain range-bound.
Ferrosilicon: On Tuesday, ferrosilicon futures weakened modestly, with the main contract closing at 5,994 yuan per tonne, down 0.96% month-on-month, while open interest fell by 781 lots to 273,000 lots. The ferrous complex showed divergent trends yesterday, with alloy prices underperforming and ferrosilicon prices drifting lower. Fundamentals show mixed maintenance and resumption activity among producers, with supply pressure gradually easing; weekly output fell 5.11% to 113,300 tonnes through last weekend. On the demand side, a Jiangsu steel mill set its ferrosilicon tender price at 6,330 yuan per tonne, down 50 yuan from the previous tender, with procurement volume of 150 tonnes. Weekly demand from sample steel mills stood at 18,100 tonnes, up 0.76% week-on-week, still at low absolute levels. Inventories at 60 sample producers increased by 1,250 tonnes week-on-week to 82,290 tonnes, positioned at high historical levels for this period. Overall, ferrosilicon fundamentals offer limited directional drive, and prices are expected to remain range-bound in the near term.
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