GF Securities has released a research report stating that white goods performance remains solid, possessing stable ROE and high dividend advantages, and is expected to benefit from trade-in policy stimulus.
Black goods leaders enjoy a triple resonance of product iteration dividends, improved domestic competitive landscape, and overseas share expansion. The logic of improving competition in the cleaning appliance sector continues, and the profit margin recovery elasticity is favored for 2026. The two-wheeler industry is seeing improved domestic sales plus rapid advancement into Southeast Asia.
The main views of GF Securities Co.,Ltd. (000776) are as follows:
Market Review
Since October 1 (October 1 to October 16), the home appliance sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.06pct. By sub-sector, since the beginning of the month, white goods (up 3.91%) performed best, followed by kitchen and bathroom appliances (down -3.84%) and small household appliances (down -5.51%).
White Goods
According to Aowei Cloud Network data, since October, online retail sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines declined by -19.67%, -13.17%, and -12.95% year-on-year respectively; offline retail sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines declined by -21.01%, -16.39%, and -14.52% year-on-year respectively.
Black Goods
Mini LED online penetration rate slightly declined year-on-year, with head brand shares diverging. From the latest weekly data in October (26W40-41, 2026.09.28-2026.10.11), online Mini LED sales penetration rate was 36.24%, down -0.85pct year-on-year, up +5.24pct quarter-on-quarter. Online retail volume shares for Redmi/Hisense/Vidda/TCL/Skyworth/FFALCON/Changhong were 11.46% / 24.08% / 8.85% / 17.16% / 11.05% / 5.24% / 2.76%, with year-on-year changes of +1.62 / +2.28 / +1.23 / -0.74 / +0.73 / -1.28 / -0.27pct respectively.
Small Household Appliances
Since October 2026 (2026.09.28-2026.10.11), robot vacuum industry online sales declined -26% year-on-year, with Ecovacs/Roborock/Narwal each declining -17% / -31% / -51% year-on-year, and shares of 35% / 34% / 7% / 8% respectively, with year-on-year changes of +3.6pct / -2.4pct / +0.3pct / -4.2pct. The floor washer industry online sales during the same period declined -23% year-on-year, with Tineco/Roborock each changing -35% / +13% year-on-year, and shares of 33% / 37% respectively, with year-on-year changes of -6.1pct / +11.7pct.
Risk Warnings
Raw material price increases; significant exchange rate fluctuations; weakening industry demand; intensifying industry competition.
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