SpaceX shares rose on Thursday, the same day over 900 million insider-held shares, valued at more than $100 billion, became eligible for sale. The feared supply shock and subsequent price plunge did not materialize, at least not yet.
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas views the lockup expiration as a buying opportunity rather than a risk warning. He describes SpaceX as "a company with multi-generational compounding growth potential, capable of massively converting energy into networked/clustered intelligence." Jonas has an overweight rating on the stock and a mid-2027 price target of $300, implying nearly triple the current share price.
Jonas believes SpaceX's rocket launch business, satellite connectivity operations, and artificial intelligence assets give it the necessary elements to "build industry-leading intelligent output per unit of power, per unit of cost, and per unit of time." Over half of the $300 target comes from SpaceX's AI business segment, with the remainder primarily from rocket launches and satellite internet services. His bullish scenario hinges on the assumption that the company's massive AI investments will translate into sustainable revenue and cash flow.
Prediction market traders remain skeptical, betting against Elon Musk's AI model becoming the most powerful by year-end. A Polymarket contract with over $556,000 in volume shows xAI's probability of claiming the top AI model by year-end at roughly 3%, compared to 67% for Anthropic and 11% for OpenAI. This could make SpaceX's infrastructure role even more critical.
Veteran analyst Bob O'Donnell suggests the company is increasingly operating like a neocloud service provider, leasing computing power to external AI developers. Therefore, even if Grok fails to win the AI model race, SpaceX can still benefit from AI demand. Renting out idle computing capacity allows the company to generate revenue from infrastructure that might otherwise sit idle. However, the model carries risks: costs remain with SpaceX, while the models and customer relationships are controlled by clients.
Morgan Stanley was one of the underwriting banks that helped SpaceX go public in June. The $100 billion lockup expiry failed to trigger a sell-off. On Thursday, up to 911.5 million SpaceX shares became eligible for sale, more than doubling the tradable float. Eligibility does not mean insiders have actually sold, and there is no evidence of widespread insider selling. Some selling pressure may have been priced in ahead of time. The stock rose 6.14% on Thursday, closing at $114.92. While insiders can now sell gradually, Thursday's trading saw little of the immediate supply shock that bears had feared.
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