According to a research note released by China Securities Co., Ltd. (601066), the restart of U.S.-Iran talks combined with the IEA's accelerated reserve releases has pushed WTI crude oil prices into a volatile downward trend.
Mediators helped the United States and Iran resume consultations over a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while the IEA has already released roughly 325 million barrels of oil, easing expectations of a supply crunch.
With macroeconomic rate pressure and structural support counterbalancing each other, gold and silver prices in the precious metals market have diverged.
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held above the 5.3% level, weighing on gold. COMEX gold spiked to $4,227 per ounce before falling back to around $4,140, while silver dropped more than 2% and the gold-to-silver ratio widened to 68.
Gold has held steady on central bank buying support, while silver has lagged on drag from its industrial attributes.
The main views of China Securities Co., Ltd. are as follows:
Sector Overview
Looking at how transportation sub-sectors performed relative to the CSI 300, the transportation sector as a whole rose this week (October 5 to October 9). The comprehensive logistics sub-sector gained 1.94% this week, with the raw materials supply chain services sub-sector up 2.28%.
Logistics Supply Chain
WTI crude oil prices moved lower in a volatile range, while gold and silver diverged in the precious metals market. WTI crude oil prices trended downward with swings. The United States and Iran, through mediators, restarted consultations on a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and IEA member countries accelerated their reserve releases, having already freed about 325 million barrels of oil. The average WTI price for the period was $91.06 per barrel, down 6.08% from the previous period; as of the October 7 settlement, it stood at $88.28 per barrel, a 16.58% pullback from the September 15 high. The seven OPEC+ nations kept their November production quotas unchanged, and Saudi Arabia will ship-to-ship transfer roughly 60 million barrels of crude through Oman's Port of Sohar over the next two months. Expectations of tight supply have eased, but with the U.S. military evaluating the deployment of an additional aircraft carrier and Iran planning to close part of the Strait's shipping lanes, geopolitical uncertainties remain, and oil prices may continue to fluctuate within a range.
Gold and silver diverged in the precious metals market. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held above the 5.3% level, with real rates weighing on non-yielding gold. COMEX gold spiked to $4,227 per ounce before falling back to around $4,140, while silver fell more than 2% on October 7 and the gold-to-silver ratio widened to 68. A World Gold Council survey showed that 45% of central banks plan to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months, and 89% expect global official reserves to keep rising. Gold has held steady on central bank buying support, while silver has lagged on drag from its industrial attributes. After the holiday, the market may continue to see a balance between interest rates and structural demand.
Risk Warnings
Global trade risks from continued escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global macroeconomic recovery falling short of expectations, logistics prices being affected by changes in policy regulation, and sharp increases in fuel costs.
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