How Palantir Stock Could Generate A 20%+ Total Return CAGR Through 2030

Seeking Alpha2022-01-26

SummaryPalantir stock was an attractive buy at $20 and now it trades at $13.Meanwhile, Palantir's investment thesis has not changed much and its services are needed more than ever.We provide an ...

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Comments

kohhc
2022-01-31
kohhc
Time to return back to 20
3nn
2022-01-28
3nn
More dilution and dips coming
tigernaut
2022-01-28
tigernaut
👍
GhordofWar
2022-01-26
GhordofWar
Harping on Total Addressable Market is kinda selling a fairytale story, not exactly convincing
Rayzor
2022-01-26
Rayzor
Cool
Deonc
2022-01-26
Deonc
They is a good company and these are the kind of company to buy the dips on. Be patient and get rewarded.
- TraderKitty:
  ok

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Meanwhile, its investment thesis has not changed much and its services are needed more than ever. In this article, we provide an updated investment thesis and valuation model.What Has Changed In Palantir?Obviously whenever a stock crashes as precipitously as PLTR has since reaching all-time highs just shy of a year ago, the natural question is: what happened?Data by YChartsWell, the answer is quite simple:1. Overall high-growth disruptive technology was in a major bubble a year ago as 2020 turned to 2021 since the sector had been bolstered substantially by COVID-19 and this had fed into a \"fear of missing out\" frenzy in the sector. Since then, this bubble has collapsed as the euphoria has worn off and soaring inflation has pressured the Federal Reserve into signaling meaningful interest rate hikes in the near future. This has pushed investors back towards companies that are generating profits today rather than being content to wait until well into the future to receive profits. The steep decline of ARK Investment's flagship ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) over the past year proves this point:Data by YCharts2. While the inflation and deflation of the ARKK bubble and the associated macroeconomic and geopolitical factors explain a lot of PLTR's share price performance over the past year, another major factor weighing on the stock is management's doubling down on its liberal stock-based compensation policy. The company's aggressive issuance of equity to its employees consistently erases what would otherwise be solid profits and turns the company's bottom line deep into the red quarter after quarter.That said, management's argument in favor of stock-based compensation also makes sense:it helps to attract and retain the best and brightest minds in the industryit gives employees substantial skin in the game alongside investorsit preserves cash for the company to invest aggressively into research, product development, and sales and marketing efforts.With such a massive and rapidly growing total addressable market, growth investing truly does seem to be the most prudent use of capital at this point, even if it means diluting shareholders in the short term. Nevertheless, itcannot be denied that this practice weighs heavily on the shares as many investors have begun to lose patience with the company's apparent disregard of shareholders. Rising inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates has only heightened that sentiment even more.What Has Not Changed In Palantir?PLTR continues to grow and innovate rapidly. While we will have to wait for Q4 results to verify this, but there is no indication that its U.S. commercial and government businesses have stopped growing rapidly. The company still has a $120 billion plus total addressable market that should grow rapidly for the next decade and beyond and its biggest current roadblock to sustaining or even increasing its robust current growth rate is winning more international business.Management seems keenly focused on accelerating its international penetration as the past two earnings calls have featured management comments referencing \"accelerating growth\" in the international business that has yet to show up, the company is investing aggressively in international sales team hiring, and the company has recently produced a string of videos featuring international clients, CEO Alex Karp speaking in French with clients, and addressing the nation of Japan to wish them a happy 2022 and announce plans to visit the nation this year.The thesis really remains the same: PLTR has a massive growth runway that should allow for robust top-line growth for many years to come, it has some of the top talent in the industry, its Foundry business is taking off nicely in the U.S., and it possesses a coveted position on the inside track with U.S. government agencies and seems to be its top horse for running the A.I. race against China.However, investors still need to see that PLTR's international commercial and government businesses can gain meaningful traction and that the company can scale to a level where the dilutive impact of stock-based compensation becomes significantly diminished. Once these two big questions are resolved, PLTR's investment thesis will be significantly de-risked and the stock price should then see much greater stability, if not upside.What Is PLTR Stock Worth?Given that PLTR's total addressable market should grow by around 20% per year (in-line with the projected 20.4% global big data CAGR through 2030), we think that PLTR's TAM will be over $600 billion by the end of 2030. We think that PLTR is competitively positioned within its space and should therefore be able to at a minimum retain its current market share, providing a nice floor growth rate of a 20% revenue CAGR over that time span.Management has guided for over $4 billion in revenue in 2025, while analysts expect the company will smash that projection with over $5 billion in revenue in 2025. That implies a ~35% revenue CAGR over that time span which we think is quite reasonable given that the company grew revenue by 47.2% in 2022 and is expected to have grown it by about 40% in 2021.If we assume a 25% revenue growth CAGR from 2026-2030, revenue will be at $15.4 billion in 2030. That would be a meager 2.5% of total addressable market share. For reference, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)currently owns ~15% of its market share and Uber(NYSE:UBER)currently owns ~4% of its market share. We think this is a very reasonable - if not conservative - set of assumptions.This leaves the big question at what PLTR's EBITDA margins will end up being. In 2020, they were 18.6% and in 2021 they are expected to come in around 30%. If the company can merely sustain these margins, its EBITDA will be $4.6 billion in 2030. At a 30x EV/EBITDA multiple, the company would be worth nearly $140 billion. Today, its enterprise value is just $24.5 billion. That would imply a 21% total return CAGR over the next nine years.Investor TakeawayGiven its competitive positioning, the soaring geopolitical tensions and rivalries that are bound to become increasingly centered on A.I. capabilities, and the rise of big data across global industry, PLTR is in a strong position to see massive growth for years to come.If it can continue growing at a rapid clip, its stock-based compensation should begin to decline in significance and ultimately it should generate attractive total returns for shareholders. Thanks to the massive recent sell-off, its margin of safety is wider than ever and it could very possibly generate over 20% annualized total returns through 2030.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9093268462,"gmtCreate":1643641111312,"gmtModify":1676533839135,"author":{"id":"3575005098665827","authorId":"3575005098665827","name":"kohhc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c8fa5bd80d29855e42f8dcd3832e0db","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3575005098665827","authorIdStr":"3575005098665827"},"htmlText":"Time to return back to 20","listText":"Time to return back to 20","text":"Time to return back to 20","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093268462","repostId":1177764614,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9099835564,"gmtCreate":1643329207631,"gmtModify":1676533805232,"author":{"id":"3573976216768090","authorId":"3573976216768090","name":"3nn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/303b8f037330070d95adf2f11d86d23a","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573976216768090","authorIdStr":"3573976216768090"},"htmlText":"More dilution and dips coming","listText":"More dilution and dips coming","text":"More dilution and dips coming","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099835564","repostId":1177764614,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9099133646,"gmtCreate":1643315674945,"gmtModify":1676533802071,"author":{"id":"3567239827558758","authorId":"3567239827558758","name":"tigernaut","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e331c670eb88443b88c6bdb76224cf","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3567239827558758","authorIdStr":"3567239827558758"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099133646","repostId":1177764614,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9090248572,"gmtCreate":1643208162398,"gmtModify":1676533785185,"author":{"id":"4101009539222040","authorId":"4101009539222040","name":"GhordofWar","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4101009539222040","authorIdStr":"4101009539222040"},"htmlText":"Harping on Total Addressable Market is kinda selling a fairytale story, not exactly convincing","listText":"Harping on Total Addressable Market is kinda selling a fairytale story, not exactly convincing","text":"Harping on Total Addressable Market is kinda selling a fairytale story, not exactly convincing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090248572","repostId":1177764614,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9090237017,"gmtCreate":1643192720748,"gmtModify":1676533783465,"author":{"id":"3560287889745415","authorId":"3560287889745415","name":"Rayzor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74b2984081a52e575941a3dfc70a455","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560287889745415","authorIdStr":"3560287889745415"},"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090237017","repostId":1177764614,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":639108515,"gmtCreate":1643187189877,"gmtModify":1676532645525,"author":{"id":"3569316529855154","authorId":"3569316529855154","name":"Deonc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9aa45dd2eb58357f6477dcfb99d1415","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3569316529855154","authorIdStr":"3569316529855154"},"htmlText":"They is a good company and these are the kind of company to buy the dips on. 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