Gold prices experienced a significant decline on Thursday, June 11th, in the Asian trading session, touching a low of $4023.85 per ounce amidst a sharp deterioration in global geopolitical tensions. This marked the lowest level since November 11th, 2025. Following a drop of over 4% on Wednesday to close at $4071.15, the session recorded the largest single-day fall since gold retreated from its historic peak of $5596 earlier in the year and also established the lowest closing price in nearly six months. Factors pressuring gold include former President Trump's "strong strikes" on Iran, Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz boosting oil prices, U.S. May inflation rising to 4.2%, the probability of a Fed rate hike in December holding above 70%, and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
Current Market Perspective
The current market action shows gold initially completing a deep probe lower during the day. After touching a key support level, the price quickly halted its decline and rebounded, displaying a clear technical recovery from the lows. This has temporarily eased the short-term bearish momentum, leading some traders to mistakenly believe a reversal is imminent. However, a comprehensive analysis of the technical structure, volume dynamics, and the longer-term trend indicates this rebound is merely a technical oversold correction within the prevailing downtrend. It does not constitute a bullish reversal signal. The overarching bearish control of the market remains fundamentally unchanged, and the core strategy should continue to focus on selling into strength.
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The longer-term technical picture maintains a complete bearish structure. On the daily chart, moving averages continue their bearish alignment, with price action consistently suppressed below these averages. The downward channel remains intact and clearly defined, showing no signs of a break in the medium to long-term declining trend. The MACD indicator persists below the zero line; although bearish momentum has contracted slightly, it has not formed a bullish crossover reversal pattern. The RSI indicator has rebounded modestly after exiting oversold territory but has not entered a strong bullish zone, lacking the technical conditions for a trend reversal. While the four-hour chart shows a brief stabilization, the pattern of lower highs and weak consolidation remains unbroken.
Key Resistance and Support Levels
Immediate core resistance is concentrated around the $4115 area, which converges with short-term moving average pressure. A stronger medium-term resistance zone lies between $4160 and $4170. This area served as a previous pivot platform; until price sustains above this level, all upward moves should be viewed as technical corrections. The effectiveness of nearby support levels continues to weaken. The $4050 area can only be considered a minor defensive support, while the core short-term support around $4020 offers only temporary relief from selling pressure. However, within the dominant longer-term bearish trend, the risk of this support being repeatedly tested and eventually broken is high, indicating its stability is insufficient.
Trading Strategy
The short-term trading approach suggests considering sell positions near $4115, with a protective stop above $4130, targeting a move down towards the $4080-$4050 range.
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