美联储“鹰鸽难定”，美股开年大反弹只是“昙花一现”？

华尔街见闻2023-02-15

尽管美股反弹迅猛，但已有多家投行发出了警告，认为反弹不可持续。随着通胀见顶、美联储转向预期升温，美股在2023年初迎来大逆转。但涨势能否维持全年，依然面临诸多考验。截至1月收官，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨11%，为2001年1月以来最佳开局，标普500和道琼斯指数当月分别上涨6.2%和2.8%。去年，在美联储大刀阔斧的加息下，美股经历了2008年金融危机以来最为糟糕的一年；债市也一溃千里，...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

嘞撸虎7
2023-02-15
嘞撸虎7
閱
yuliang559
2023-02-15
yuliang559
[微笑]
- yuliang559:
  [微笑]
hangyuliang
2023-02-15
hangyuliang
[微笑]
- hangyuliang:
  [微笑]

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177778264?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2023-02-15 14:26","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1177778264","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美联储“鹰鸽难定”，美股开年大反弹只是“昙花一现”？","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>尽管美股反弹迅猛，但已有多家投行发出了警告，认为反弹不可持续。随着通胀见顶、美联储转向预期升温，美股在2023年初迎来大逆转。但涨势能否维持全年，依然面临诸多考验。截至1月收官，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨11%，为2001年1月以来最佳开局，标普500和道琼斯指数当月分别上涨6.2%和2.8%。去年，在美联储大刀阔斧的加息下，美股经历了2008年金融危机以来最为糟糕的一年；债市也一溃千里，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储“鹰鸽难定”，美股开年大反弹只是“昙花一现”？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储“鹰鸽难定”，美股开年大反弹只是“昙花一现”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2023-02-15 14:26 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>尽管美股反弹迅猛，但已有多家投行发出了警告，认为反弹不可持续。随着通胀见顶、美联储转向预期升温，美股在2023年初迎来大逆转。但涨势能否维持全年，依然面临诸多考验。截至1月收官，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨11%，为2001年1月以来最佳开局，标普500和道琼斯指数当月分别上涨6.2%和2.8%。去年，在美联储大刀阔斧的加息下，美股经历了2008年金融危机以来最为糟糕的一年；债市也一溃千里，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"","article_id":"1177778264","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177778264","pubTimestamp":1676442363,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"尽管美股反弹迅猛，但已有多家投行发出了警告，认为反弹不可持续。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"The Federal Reserve is \"difficult to decide\", and the Big bounce of US stocks in the beginning of the year is only a \"flash in the pan\"?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c974391fb8c44aeab5db77b4fb0ea4c","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"尽管美股反弹迅猛，但已有多家投行发出了警告，认为反弹不可持续。随着通胀见顶、美联储转向预期升温，美股在2023年初迎来大逆转。但涨势能否维持全年，依然面临诸多考验。截至1月收官，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨11%，为2001年1月以来最佳开局，标普500和道琼斯指数当月分别上涨6.2%和2.8%。去年，在美联储大刀阔斧的加息下，美股经历了2008年金融危机以来最为糟糕的一年；债市也一溃千里，追踪美国投资级债券的全债券市场指数(Total Bond Index)2022年下跌超过13%，创历史最差表现。开年美股大涨、债市反弹一扫颓势，这背后主要的原因是随着通胀数据见顶放缓，市场认为美联储已经打赢了这场通胀抗击战，投资者越来越乐观地认为，加息终点在即，甚至憧憬起了降息。然而，强劲的就业数据为这种乐观情绪浇了一盆冷水。美国1月非农就业人口猛增51.7万人，远超预期的18.5万人，失业率也创下53年新低。鲍威尔表态称，若就业继续强劲，很可能必须有更多行动，加息可能超出市场定价水平。一些分析师对市场前景发出了警告。花旗亚太区交易策略主管Mohammed Apabhai近日表示，交易员们忽视了美国利率峰值高于预期的风险，美联储利率可能达到6%，这可能导致债券和股票遭到痛苦抛售。“不要对美股抱太大期望”尽管美股反弹迅猛，但已有多家投行发出了警告，认为反弹不可持续。摩根士丹利首席投资官Lisa Shalett年初曾指出，美国股市在整个2022年经历的多次熊市反弹表明，尽管经济数据和美国国债收益率继续发出警告，但许多投资者还没有接受利率持续走高和经济大幅放缓的可能性。Shalett认为，不要对美股抱太大期望，美国股市投资者可能过于乐观，进入2023年有两个主要原因值得担忧:（一）缺乏吸引力的估值：股票风险溢仍相对较低，介于180至250个基点之间，而长期平均水平超过350个基点。这告诉我们，投资者没有因为承担股权风险而得到适当的补偿。（二）收益预期过高：市场对标普500指数2023年收益的普遍预期在230美元左右，这一数字意味着收益将增长约5%。对我们来说，这一预测没有考虑到企业可能面临的挑战，尤其是在它们开始真正感受到货币环境收紧的影响之际。我们认为更现实的预测是195美元，基于我们的预期，标普500将再下跌15%至20%，然后在2023年底恢复到与今天持平的水平。在上周的报告中，高盛David J. Kostin策略师团队表示，美股过去一个月的强劲反弹可能已是强弩之末，年内再无上行空间。他们认为，今年迄今累计涨逾7%的标普500已经准确释放出了经济增长好于预期的信号，美债收益率下降也是如此。被誉为“华尔街最准分析师”的美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett也发出了警告，他认为今年年初美股的涨势已接近尾声，衰退正慢慢逼近，投资者应开始警惕美股将被大量抛售的风险。在最新的一份报告中，Hartnett警告称，美股涨势已经过头，认为标普500将在2月中旬触及高点，如果下半年美国经济增长乏力，投资者将会经历惨烈的下跌。债市相对乐观相比之下，分析师们对债市的看法还算乐观，原因在于即便美联储继续加息，也不太可能像2022年那样激进，这对债券的影响将更加温和。美联储去年七次上调基准利率，将利率上调至 4.25% 至 4.5%，这是自 1980 年代初以来最激进的政策举措。根据芝商所美联储观察工具FedWatch的预测来看，3月加息25个基点的概率接近88%。图：3月23日美联储会议的利率预测概率(截至2023年2月14日)分析师认为，随着加息节奏放缓甚至停止，债市回报不一定会转正，但相对于股票，债券可能会重新成为投资组合稳定器和多元化工具。高盛预测，2023年债券收益率将超过股票股息，并且认为一旦发生衰退债市更是一个安全港。因此，投资者亦可考虑运用芝商所旗下的微型E-迷你股指期货合约来对冲美股潜在的回落风险。这是小规模合约，让交易者更容易进入期货市场。小规模合约具备与标准期货合约相同的资本效益、灵活性和多样化潜力，交易者只需支付一小部分的保证金，即可在流动性最强的市场进行交易。芝商所的微型E-迷你股指系列合约为交易者交易股指期货提供了更多便利。2022年第四季度，所有四种微型E-mini期货的日均成交量均达到300万份合约（看下图）。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9954565150,"gmtCreate":1676471854971,"gmtModify":1676471858827,"author":{"id":"4092032122452460","authorId":"4092032122452460","authorIdStr":"4092032122452460","name":"嘞撸虎7","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451ff62190f624c13c07b54476dd5930","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4092032122452460"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954565150","repostId":1177778264,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9954530199,"gmtCreate":1676447001811,"gmtModify":1676447005369,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581663680495191"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954530199","repostId":1177778264,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105802443,"gmtCreate":1676447007803,"gmtModify":1676447010996,"authorId":3581663680495191,"author":{"id":3581663680495191,"authorId":3581663680495191,"name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9954530199,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9954597416,"gmtCreate":1676446590836,"gmtModify":1676446594275,"author":{"id":"3581648325885484","authorId":"3581648325885484","authorIdStr":"3581648325885484","name":"hangyuliang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/666befce0f00a6a00c265bccefcc9033","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581648325885484"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954597416","repostId":1177778264,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105802430,"gmtCreate":1676446597626,"gmtModify":1676446620688,"authorId":3581648325885484,"author":{"id":3581648325885484,"authorId":3581648325885484,"name":"hangyuliang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/666befce0f00a6a00c265bccefcc9033","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9954597416,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":35,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.27.0","shortVersion":"4.27.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1177778264"}