Good morning! With only three trading days left before the National Day holiday, please make the most of trading opportunities. Let's review the latest news. Oil prices surged at today's open. As of press time, Brent crude oil futures rose 1.42%, briefly breaking above $99 per barrel, while New York crude oil futures gained 1.30%. On the news front, new developments have emerged in the Middle East situation.
Trump anticipates US-Iran talks to resume within days. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump said on the 27th that he expects the United States and Iran to restart negotiations within the coming week. According to the US news website Axios, Trump made the remarks during a telephone interview with the outlet that day. Trump also said he has "been considering" whether to resume military strikes against Iran, while US forces are assisting in shipping "large amounts of oil" out of the Strait of Hormuz. The outlet, citing regional sources, reported that a new round of indirect talks between the US and Iran is expected to be held as early as the 28th, with mediators including Qatar working to broker the discussions, but significant differences remain between the two sides on key issues. Iran hopes to focus the talks on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iran, while the Trump administration demands that Iran agree to concessions on the nuclear issue.
Iran says it is ready to resume war with the US but has not abandoned diplomatic channels. According to Xinhua News Agency, citing Iran's Mehr News Agency on the 27th, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that Iran is prepared to resume war with the United States but has not yet abandoned contact through diplomatic channels. In an interview with NBC that day, Araghchi said, "We are fully prepared for the resumption of war," while adding, "We are also ready for diplomatic engagement at any time," and "this depends on the choice of US President Trump."
Yemen's Houthi armed group says it was hit by 26 Saudi airstrikes in 24 hours. According to CCTV, Yemen's Houthi armed group said on the 27th that Saudi Arabian warplanes launched 26 airstrikes on five provinces in Yemen over the past 24 hours. Yemeni government forces said they had carried out hundreds of strikes on Houthi military targets over the past three days. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said in a statement on social media that day that several F-15 fighter jets took off from Saudi Arabia's Khamis Mushait Air Base and launched 26 airstrikes on the five provinces of Taiz, Al Jawf, Marib, Dhamar and Saada in Yemen, causing casualties. However, the statement did not mention specific casualty figures. The statement said that since the escalation of this round of conflict, Saudi Arabia has launched 1,085 airstrikes and missile attacks.
Vucic resigns as Serbian president, prepares to run for prime minister in the next government. According to Xinhua News Agency, Serbian President Vucic submitted his resignation on the 27th, stepping down from the presidency. As previously announced, he will run for prime minister in the next government. Vucic was elected president in April 2017 and re-elected in May 2022. Under the Serbian constitution, the presidential term is five years and may be renewed once.
Multiple factors converge to drive a strong rally in natural rubber. Last week, the natural rubber sector performed impressively, staging a strong upward rally. Among them, the main Shanghai rubber 2701 contract rose 4.53% for the week, closing at 19,600 yuan per ton; the main No. 20 rubber 2611 contract rose 6.98% for the week, closing at 17,100 yuan per ton, a record high since listing. Ye Haiwen, manager of the Energy and Chemical Research Center at Guomao Futures Research Institute, believes that this round of natural rubber price increases is the result of multiple bullish factors converging. First, raw material latex prices remain firm, providing strong cost support. Last week, continued rainfall in southern Thailand disrupted tapping, with cup lump purchase prices rising from 72.5 baht per kilogram at the beginning of the week to 76.5 baht per kilogram by the weekend, keeping latex prices above 80 baht per kilogram, at a high level for the same period in the past five years. Second, expectations of reduced output in the fourth quarter due to El Nino continue to intensify, with the market pricing in the risk of forward production cuts in Southeast Asian producing areas, and supply contraction expectations driving forward premiums wider. Third, warehouse receipts and inventories are both at low levels, also providing support for rubber prices. As of September 24, No. 20 rubber warehouse receipt inventory was only 6,754 tons, down sharply by 4,233 tons month-on-month, the lowest in nearly four years; Shanghai rubber warehouse receipt inventory was about 148,000 tons, also at a low level for the same period in history. Domestic natural rubber social inventories continued their destocking trend, and tight spot liquidity persisted. Fourth, stronger synthetic rubber prices drove substitution demand. Yang Xiya, a researcher at Southwest Futures, said this round of rubber price rebound is mainly supported by the supply side. Southeast Asian producing areas are currently in the peak production stage, but recent excessive rain in the region has repeatedly disrupted tapping and collection progress, causing raw material cup lump prices to remain firm and providing solid cost support for the futures market. At the same time, higher crude oil prices drove synthetic rubber prices up in tandem, making natural rubber's comparative advantage more prominent, with downstream substitute procurement increasing somewhat, thereby pushing rubber prices higher. On the demand side, the all-steel tire operating rate is currently 58.26% and the semi-steel tire operating rate is 64.70%, with overall operating rates at a neutral level. "Affected by lackluster terminal orders, pressure on corporate profits and relatively high finished product inventories, tire manufacturers are mostly restocking based on immediate needs, with weak willingness to stock up at high prices. The overall effect of the 'Golden September' peak season has been mediocre, and the demand side has not yet shown a substantial recovery," Yang Xiya said. On the inventory side, natural rubber continues a slight destocking trend, with total bonded and general trade inventory in Qingdao at 585,400 tons, down 2.96% month-on-month, and spot circulation supply relatively tight, providing a floor for the market. However, natural rubber spot prices have shown weak follow-through, with the futures-spot premium continuing to widen, limited terminal acceptance of high prices, and market sentiment for chasing gains relatively cautious. Looking ahead, Yang Xiya said that in the short term, weather disruptions in Southeast Asian producing areas, firm raw materials and inventory destocking will support rubber prices in maintaining a relatively strong pattern, but after consecutive gains, the futures market has demand for a pullback and correction. Going forward, it is necessary to continue monitoring weather in Southeast Asian producing areas, raw material output, Qingdao inventories, tire operating rates and crude oil linkages. Once supply disruptions fade and peak-season demand continues to fall short of expectations, rubber prices may face a high-level adjustment. Regarding the medium- to long-term outlook for natural rubber, Ye Haiwen maintains a bullish view. He believes that at the macro level, marginal improvement in the trade environment has boosted overall risk appetite for commodities; on the supply-demand side, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) reported a cumulative production decline of 1.18% year-on-year in the first seven months, with strong raw material cost support. In addition, the current El Nino has not yet significantly affected actual output, and the production reduction impact is expected to be concentrated from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027.
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