According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin market structure is confronting a severe test. A report released by Glassnode on November 11, 2026 issued a stern warning of "fuel depletion." Author Jamie Redman pointed out that although large investors have begun accumulating, sustained capital outflows and a shift in hedging strategies are restraining any price rebound.
The core of the liquidity crisis lies in the sharp contraction of stablecoin supply and the withdrawal of institutional capital. Glassnode's analysis indicates that Bitcoin's price has fallen below the $75,600 short-term holder cost basis and is underperforming stock markets, with capital that could have driven prices higher continuously draining away. Stablecoin supply is shrinking at the fastest pace since June 2022. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that stablecoin supply decreased by $14.2 billion over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.6 billion in net redemptions over 20 trading sessions. In addition, Bitcoin is trading at a discount on the Coinbase (COIN.US) platform, with the discount reaching its highest level since February, further intensifying market concerns about liquidity.
An analysis of holding structure reveals the predicament of short-term holders and key resistance levels. Currently, about 35% of short-term holders remain profitable on Bitcoin, whereas when prices peaked in September, nearly all such holders were in profit. Glassnode found that a large pool of sell-side inventory exists near $83,600, which could provide exit opportunities for investors in a loss position, thereby increasing the difficulty of a Bitcoin rebound. However, the price decline has also cleared most long-term leveraged positions near the current price, and buy-side strength in the order book exceeds sell-side strength. Wallet groups holding 100 to 1,000 Bitcoins and 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins have resumed accumulation, while smaller investors and the largest holders continue to sell. There is substantial buy-side interest between $68,000 and $72,500, while concentrated liquidation risk exists between $59,500 and $62,600. Above the current price, liquidity in the order book is relatively thin until around $84,000, while below the current price, liquidations are concentrated near $87,500.
Trend support and key technical indicators provide a baseline reference for the market. Glassnode stated that the September price high was the first higher high since Bitcoin set its all-time high (ATH) in 2025, and this uptrend will persist as long as prices remain above the June low of $58,500. The key technical indicators it provided include: a short-term holder cost basis of $75,600, a true market mean of $77,500, and an election-day closing price target of $77,800 for Bitcoin. Together, these indicators form the key reference framework for the current bull-bear battle, and investors need to closely monitor how prices perform at these critical levels.
An overview of the options market shows that open interest distribution and the long-short ratio are approaching balance. Derivatives data from Coinglass indicates that the market is seeking a balance between long-term optimism and short-term risk prevention. Total Bitcoin options open interest stands at 439,966 BTC, worth approximately $33 billion, of which call options account for 55.72% and put options 44.28%. The resulting put-to-call ratio of 0.79 indicates that the upside trend still holds a slight advantage. Deribit, the largest options trading platform by volume, holds the most open interest. Its $81,000 call expiring on November 13 has an open interest of 8,305.9 BTC, followed by the $80,000 call expiring on December 25 with 8,113.9 BTC, and then the $100,000 call with 6,612.7 BTC.
Recent options trading details reveal a bearish preference compared with historical data. In the December options market, there are also 6,520.6 BTC in $60,000 puts, 5,842.1 BTC in $120,000 calls, 5,518.8 BTC in $40,000 puts, and 5,403.9 BTC in $90,000 calls. There are additionally 5,200.8 BTC in $84,000 calls expiring on November 13. The total notional value of the November-expiring $81,000 and $84,000 option contracts is approximately $1 billion, though Bitcoin would need to stage a significant rebound before Friday's expiry to reach these price levels. Recent trading activity appears more cautious. Within a 24-hour options trading volume of 45,210 BTC, put options accounted for 50.32%, slightly above calls at 49.68%. Trading activity was concentrated between November 12 and 13, with contract prices between $72,000 and $75,500. The most active were Deribit's $72,000 and $73,000 puts, with trading volumes of 730.3 BTC and 715.8 BTC respectively. Other notable contracts include Deribit's $100,000 call expiring November 27 with a volume of 868.3 BTC, and the $50,000 put expiring December 25 with a volume of 673.8 BTC. From a historical perspective, options open interest peaked at approximately $65 billion in October 2025, rapidly declined to about $25 billion after December contract expiry, and briefly recovered to about $53 billion in September 2026. Deribit's trading volume also reached about $11.5 billion in September, before falling to about $5 billion in November 2026.
Disagreement in prediction markets is reflected in the probability distributions on Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket's November Bitcoin price prediction market has a total of 28 prediction targets with total participation of $5.17 million. Traders assign a 91% probability to Bitcoin reaching $75,000, a 62% probability to $77,500, and a 39% probability to $80,000. Conversely, the probability of a decline to $72,500 is 73%, to $70,000 is 50%, and to $65,000 is only 18%. The probability of reaching $100,000 is just 1%. These are Polymarket's predicted probabilities as of 1:40 p.m. Eastern Time on November 11, 2026. Polymarket's broader 2026 price prediction market has attracted cumulative betting of $84.26 million. Its predicted probabilities are: a 61% probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000, 34% for $65,000, and 20% for $60,000. For upside targets, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 is 18%, $100,000 is 6%, and $250,000 is less than 1%. Meanwhile, Kalshi's November highest-price prediction market has $1.34 million in bets, with a 19% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $82,500, 15% for exceeding $85,000, and 8% for exceeding $87,500. Another Kalshi year-end price settlement prediction market worth $46.75 million favors a narrower price range. The probability of the $70,000 to $74,999.99 range is 18.9%, the $75,000 to $79,999.99 range is 18.5%, and the $65,000 to $69,999.99 range is 13%. It should be noted that these prediction contracts measure different outcomes. Polymarket's price prediction contracts settle when the price reaches a specified threshold, while Kalshi's year-end price prediction market focuses on Bitcoin's actual closing price range.
A comprehensive outlook shows demand verification challenges alongside institutional developments. Deutsche Bank has incorporated Bitcoin custody services into its institutional banking system. Germany's largest bank, Deutsche Bank (DB.US), has officially launched digital asset custody services for institutional clients across Europe, including Bitcoin in its service scope. Although large investors are beginning to accumulate, overall capital flows remain unfavorable. The challenge Bitcoin currently faces is not only attracting buyers but also proving that new demand is sufficient to withstand the selling pressure already present in its market structure.
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