On April 3, gold markets were closed for Good Friday, but the non-farm payrolls data will be released as scheduled on Friday evening. Combined with potential updates over the weekend regarding the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, these factors are expected to significantly influence market openings on Monday. This increases the likelihood of a one-sided market movement at the start of the week, though the direction—whether a sharp decline or a rebound—will depend on incoming market news.
From a technical perspective, we provided a detailed analysis on Thursday. Interested readers can refer to our previous article. Since the non-farm payrolls data had not been released and trading was suspended on Friday, Thursday’s market movement did not fully unfold. The actual trend will only become clear after Monday’s opening. For now, technical factors may take a back seat, as the primary focus should be on the impact of the non-farm payrolls report and developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Here is an early analysis and trading outlook for the coming week: After testing resistance near the 4,800 level on Thursday, gold experienced a sharp decline. With no significant rebound before the market close, the short-term trading strategy for next week remains biased toward selling on rallies. However, the following three factors arising from the market closure will be critical:
First, if the non-farm payrolls data turns out negative and tensions in the U.S.-Iran conflict escalate over the weekend due to further statements, a downward move in gold prices is likely at Monday’s open. Key support levels to watch are 4,550–4,480, with a break below potentially leading toward the 4,430–4,350 zone, which served as the previous rally starting point.
Second, given high U.S. inflation, the non-farm payrolls data could surprise positively. However, if the U.S.-Iran situation worsens during the market closure, Monday may see gold rise initially before falling. Even if news-driven buying emerges, resistance remains strong in the short term. The first key resistance is at 4,700–4,750, followed by the week’s high of 4,800.
The third scenario, which would support a continued bullish trend, depends on improved geopolitical stability and weaker U.S. economic performance. If the non-farm payrolls data is positive and the U.S.-Iran conflict shows signs of de-escalation over the weekend, Monday could see a strong upward move. In that case, long positions could be considered near 4,600–4,630, with initial resistance at 4,750–4,800. A sustained break above 4,800 would open the path toward 4,950–5,000, our previously identified bullish target.
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