Zheshang Securities released a research report highlighting that price trends are improving, with service consumption surpassing goods consumption. Travel demand remains stable, while business travel shows marginal recovery. Online travel agencies (OTAs) maintain profit certainty, and hotel RevPAR rebounds, contributing to earnings elasticity. Scenic spots focus on non-linear expansion through asset integration.
Offline retail remains in a major adjustment cycle, shifting from store closures to optimizing existing assets, with potential profit releases. Local services see easing competition, with leading players benefiting from deep moats, while instant retail accelerates warehouse deployment for profitability.
Cross-border e-commerce faces short-term tariff and regulatory disruptions but retains resilience due to China’s supply chain cost and efficiency advantages. Core markets are expanding from saturated regions to Southeast Asia, Latin America, and beyond. Key insights include:
1. **Travel Sector**: - **OTAs**: Accommodation outperforms transportation, with steady overall growth. Competition remains stable, and ARPU growth is expected. - **Scenic Spots**: Performance diverges in 2025, with natural sites outperforming artificial ones. Asset integration drives growth—watch for opportunities like Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and Changbai Mountain’s winter tourism IP. - **Hotels**: RevPAR rebounds after two years of decline, with supply rationalizing and leading players strengthening pricing power.
2. **Offline Retail**: - Price trends turn positive, benefiting supermarkets. Regional retailers gain from traffic spillover, while long-term growth hinges on private labels and supply chain upgrades.
3. **Local Services**: - Intensified competition in 2025 pressures profitability, but 2026 may see rationalization, shifting focus to in-store and travel services. Instant retail remains a priority.
4. **E-Commerce**: - Platforms pivot from GMV-driven goals to user experience and merchant ecosystems. Instant retail emerges as a key growth driver, with Alibaba and JD.com achieving strong results.
5. **Cross-Border E-Commerce**: - Resilience persists despite policy headwinds, with expansion into Southeast Asia and Latin America. Focus on two types of players: - Export service providers with logistics, compliance, and digital advantages. - Sellers with strong branding, localization, or independent site operations.
**Risks**: Slower-than-expected consumption recovery, heightened competition, and currency/interest rate volatility.
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