On Thursday, August 20th, international gold prices displayed a deep V-shaped movement, closing with a T-shaped candlestick pattern. This formation suggests some potential for a rebound top and pullback, but current bullish momentum shows no signs of weakening. This week, attention remains on the 30-week moving average as key resistance. A close below this level could signal pullback risks next week, while a close above it would strengthen the bullish outlook for the following week or beyond, potentially paving the way toward the $5,000 mark or even higher.
Looking at the specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,522.34 per ounce and initially declined, reaching an intraday low of $4,450.90 during early US trading hours. It then rebounded steadily, hitting an intraday high of $4,540.67 around 11 PM, before retreating slightly. The day ultimately closed at $4,519.03, with an intraday range of $89.77, down $3.31, or 0.07%.
Looking ahead to Friday, August 21st, international gold opened stronger, building on the previous day's rebound momentum. While Thursday saw profit-taking after a significant rally, along with a rebound in 10-year Treasury yields that erased Wednesday's decline, and bearish pressure from weekly jobless claims data, the scale of the bond buyback program—potentially exceeding $40 billion—has kept deep-seated concerns alive over massive fiscal deficits, large-scale debt issuance, and persistent inflation risks. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's willingness to tolerate higher energy prices has renewed gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, positioning it as a hedge against government debt expansion and fiscal uncertainty, thereby supporting prices.
In the near term, although geopolitical tensions continue to fuel inflation risks, the accompanying economic pressures are equally evident. This is not inflation driven by an overheated economy and excessive money printing, but rather cost-push inflation stemming from higher raw material costs. Consequently, the resulting economic damage would likely prevent the Fed from raising interest rates, instead raising the risk of stagflation—another bullish factor for gold.
Furthermore, the large-scale buyback of US bonds represents a form of monetary easing. By purchasing government bonds, the Fed injects funds into the market, increasing money supply. This serves as a de facto rate cut. Therefore, gold prices are likely to remain in a strong position.
On the technical front, the weekly chart shows gold strengthening again this week, as expected reaching the vicinity of the downtrend line and 30-week moving average resistance. While this presents some resistance and potential pullback pressure, the ZZ indicator does not yet signal a rebound peak, and accompanying indicators maintain bullish signals, suggesting the uptrend still has prospects. Any pullback should therefore be viewed as a buying opportunity, with a high probability of breaking through resistance and continuing toward the $4,700 or $4,800 targets.
On the daily chart, gold's bullish momentum weakened slightly yesterday, with some technical patterns suggesting a potential rebound top. Key focus today is whether the close forms a solid bullish candle or an inverted hammer. If the price fails to close higher or settles below $4,560, a correction could follow next week. For now, the intraday bias remains cautiously bullish.
For intraday trading reference points—with exact entry and exit levels subject to real-time account notifications—gold finds support around $4,500 or $4,470/$4,440, with resistance at $4,560 or $4,600. For silver, support is at $68.00 or $67.30, with resistance at $69.70 or $70.60.
Please note: This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should operate at their own risk.
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