JPMorgan Asset Management forecasts that Bitcoin will outpace US large-cap stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and gold in annualized returns over the next decade.
However, in the firm's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, this 10% return projection comes alongside 55% annualized volatility, which is precisely why it is not being included in core asset allocation models.
In the 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, JPMorgan projects a base-case annual return of 10% for Bitcoin over the next 10 years.
By comparison, US large-cap stocks are expected to return 7.5%, US real estate investment trusts (REITs) 8.2%, and gold 5.5%.
This year marks the 31st edition of the report, but it has never previously set a return range for Bitcoin.
Nevertheless, the firm still considers the cryptocurrency too volatile to be included in core portfolios.
JPMorgan assigns Bitcoin an arithmetic return of 20.9%, which is the simple average of annual gains.
It estimates Bitcoin's annual volatility at 55%.
According to the report, by contrast, US large-cap stocks have a volatility of 18%.
These fluctuations suppress compound returns, which are what investors actually pocket over the long term.
JPMorgan Bitcoin Scenarios: From Annual Losses to Positive Returns
The report states that the base case is a blend of three models.
One model compares global money growth against Bitcoin's supply; another treats Bitcoin as a complement to gold; and a third examines usage of the Bitcoin network.
JPMorgan weights them at 65%, 30%, and 5% based on its confidence in each.
The bear case projects an annual loss of 11.2%, while the bull case projects an annual gain of 16.6%.
All three scenarios start from a Bitcoin price of $83,000 as of September 30, 2026.
Previously, Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer predicted that Bitcoin would outperform gold, even as he remained bullish on gold's rally and considered its fair value to be $5,000.
Why JPMorgan Keeps Bitcoin Out of Its Core Portfolio Models
Even with the new forecast, JPMorgan still excludes Bitcoin from its main covariance matrix.
Instead, it constructs a smaller, separate matrix.
The report states that treating BTC as a diversification tool in a balanced portfolio now seems premature.
The report also notes that Bitcoin's correlations with other assets remain unstable.
According to the report, Bitcoin's correlation with US large-cap stocks is 0.33, and its correlation with gold is 0.10.
A reading of 1 would mean the two move in perfect sync.
The firm also dismisses the notion that currency debasement, or depreciation of money, could trigger an influx of capital into cryptocurrencies.
It calls Bitcoin a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.
The report states that this view could be overturned.
According to JPMorgan, Bitcoin could play a larger role as volatility declines, correlations stabilize, and regulation becomes clearer.
Until then, the firm says any allocation should be stress-tested against both its bull and bear scenarios.
Comments