Today (October 27), the nonferrous metals sector is among the top gainers, with the Leading Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) reaching an intraday increase of 2.96%, currently up 2.28%, and real-time transaction volume exceeding 28 million yuan, with a significant increase expected. The ETF has reestablished its position above the 10-day moving average, aiming for a fifth consecutive positive closing, and the daily K-line may have formed an "upward step."
From a technical analysis perspective, the 10-day moving average reflects the average market cost over a short period (approximately two weeks). The recovery of the stock price above this average indicates that short-term bullish forces are strong enough to push it above this "short-term cost line," giving an advantage to bulls in short-term speculation. If this recovery also occurs with increasing volume, the reliability of the signal is strengthened, suggesting that funds are actively entering the market.
In terms of component stocks, Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. is trading at the upper limit, while Western Superconducting, China Northern Rare Earth, and Jiangxi Copper have all increased by over 5%. Other stocks such as Vanadium Titanium Resources, Baowu Magnesium, and Chuangjin New Material are also trending upward.
Regarding capital flow, as of the time of writing, the nonferrous metals sector has seen a net inflow exceeding 5.5 billion yuan from major funds, ranking second among 31 first-level industries of Shenwan. China Northern Rare Earth alone has attracted over 900 million yuan, placing it in the A-share capital-absorbing Top 5.
On the policy front, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments jointly issued the "Nonferrous Metals Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)," officially ushering the industry into a new phase of "systemic support + structural prosperity." Coupled with the Federal Reserve commencing a new round of interest rate cuts in September, the global liquidity environment is expected to witness a turning point again. Industry insiders note that the resonance between policy and cycle may present new opportunities for nonferrous metals: 1. Monetary attributes: A loosening of the "dollar anchor" is reshaping nonferrous metal pricing. 2. Commodity attributes: Limited supply + demand release have led to a tight equilibrium.
Technological innovation is at the forefront. Fifteen years ago, real estate and infrastructure were the core driving forces of China's economy, accounting for over 30% and 50% of copper and aluminum demand, respectively. However, with the recent transition in economic structure, the demand proportion from real estate and infrastructure has significantly decreased, while the share of new energy industries now exceeds 15% for copper and 20% for aluminum. The drivers behind industrial demand have changed dramatically.
Looking ahead, industry insiders believe that nonferrous metals, being globally priced commodities, are set to play a significant role in this round of the commodity bull market. On one hand, driven by mid- to long-term capital expenditure cycles, nonferrous metals have entered a protracted pricing uptrend characterized by supply tightening. On the other hand, the ongoing uptrend in the global manufacturing investment cycle, combined with the demand for strategic metal resource reserves amid de-globalization, will continue to enhance the demand for nonferrous metals. This is further strengthened by the expectation of a recovery in the domestic macroeconomic landscape. This accumulation of logic positions nonferrous metals as key commodities in this slow bull market.
【The Future of Industry: The 'Metal Heart' and the 'Golden Blood' of Modern Industry】 Different nonferrous metals exhibit varying levels of prosperity, rhythms, and driving factors, leading to inevitable differentiation. If you are optimistic about the nonferrous metal sector, a relatively straightforward approach to harnessing the beta movement of the entire sector is through broad coverage. The Leading Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) and its linked funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) passively track the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index, with weightings in the copper, gold, aluminum, rare earth, and lithium industries at 27.6%, 14.5%, 13.1%, 10.4%, and 8.4%, respectively. This diversification not only mitigates risks compared to investing in single metal sectors but also makes it suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios.
Risk Warning: The Leading Nonferrous Metals ETF and its linked funds passively track the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index, which was established on December 31, 2013, and released on July 13, 2015. The index has experienced fluctuations over the last five complete years: 2020, 35.84%; 2021, 35.89%; 2022, -19.22%; 2023, -10.43%; 2024, 2.96%. The composition of the index is adjusted according to its drafting rules, and historical performance does not predict future outcomes. The descriptions of stocks in this article are for illustration only; the individual stock descriptions do not serve as any form of investment advice nor do they represent the holdings or trading activities of any fund under management. The fund manager assesses this fund as having a risk rating of R3, which is suitable for balanced type (C3) investors and above. Please refer to the sales institution for suitability matching opinions. Any information presented in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, predictions, charts, indicators, theories, or any form of expression) is for reference only, and investors are responsible for any investment decisions made independently. Furthermore, any opinions, analyses, and forecasts contained in this article do not constitute investment advice in any form to the reader, nor does it bear any responsibility for any direct or indirect losses caused by the use of this article's content. Fund investments carry risks, past performance is not indicative of future results, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee future fund performance. Investors should exercise caution with fund investments.
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