Abstract
Posco is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on January 29, 2026 after market close; our preview compiles consensus expectations and recent institutional commentary to frame likely revenue, margin, and EPS dynamics amid weak steel pricing and battery-material normalization.
Market Forecast
Market consensus anticipates that Posco’s December-quarter revenue will decline year over year as steel ASPs soften and downstream shipment mix normalizes; adjusted EPS is expected to trend lower on pressured spreads and ongoing capex for battery materials. Company commentary from recent updates points to a cautious gross profit margin trajectory and a modest net profit margin, while adjusted EPS is projected to reflect lower steel profitability and muted trading contributions.
The company’s core steel operations are expected to see subdued revenue as contract resets reflect weaker benchmark prices, while trading and construction remain steady; the battery-materials platform should show sequential stabilization but slower year-over-year growth from a high base. The most promising segment, rechargeable battery materials, is expected to contribute a growing share of revenue as precursor and cathode capacity ramps, although the year-over-year growth rate is likely to moderate from prior quarters.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Posco reported gross profit margin of 8.18%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 4,208.45 billion in USD terms, a net profit margin of 2.44%, and a subdued revenue base consistent with a challenging pricing environment; adjusted EPS declined year over year as steel spreads compressed. Net profit grew quarter over quarter by 163.25%, reflecting a rebound from prior period disruptions and improved cost normalization. The main business mix was led by steel at 9.49 billion, trading at 5.93 billion, and construction at 1.10 billion in USD terms, with battery materials at 0.67 billion; year-over-year dynamics were uneven, with steel volumes stable but pricing lower and battery materials normalizing.
Current Quarter Outlook
Steel and Core Metals Operations
The steel segment remains the principal earnings driver and the area with the greatest sensitivity to macro demand and commodity spreads this quarter. Spot and contract prices for flat products have softened from midyear peaks, while input costs such as iron ore remain volatile, compressing unit margins. Utilization rates remain healthy, but the reset of contract prices and a less favorable mix in automotive and appliance demand point to muted revenue and shrinking gross profit per ton. We expect the steel unit to focus on cost management and value-added grades to partially offset spread pressure, but near-term operating leverage will be limited as top-line growth decelerates.
Rechargeable Battery Materials Platform
Rechargeable battery materials is the strategic growth vector, supported by investments in precursor and cathode materials. While customer qualification pipelines continue, order intake growth has cooled from a high base given inventory normalization across EV supply chains and cautious OEM production schedules. Revenue contribution is set to rise as capacity ramps, yet year-over-year growth may moderate, reflecting a more measured build-out and deferral of certain orders to align with downstream demand. Margin structure in this segment remains in flux as scale benefits accrue; mix upgrades toward higher-nickel chemistries and long-term contracts can sustain medium-term profitability even if near-term volumes are uneven.
Trading, Construction, and Logistics
Trading is expected to remain relatively stable, reflecting throughput tied to commodity flows and customer shipments, but margin contribution is slim and sensitive to price swings. Construction and logistics provide diversification; construction revenue should track the cadence of industrial and infrastructure projects, with profitability governed by contract pass-through mechanics and project execution. These segments support group cash flows but are unlikely to offset steel margin contraction in the quarter, placing emphasis on disciplined working capital and capex pacing to preserve balance-sheet flexibility.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Equity performance will hinge on guidance for steel spreads into the March quarter, evidence of unit cost declines, and commentary on contract renewals with automotive customers. Investors will also focus on the cadence of battery-materials capacity ramp and customer commitments, watching for updates on offtake volumes and qualification milestones. Capital allocation signals—particularly the trajectory of capex for energy materials versus base metals and any adjustments to shareholder returns—may influence valuation multiples given changing growth and margin visibility.
Analyst Opinions
Across recent institutional commentary, the balance of views skews cautious, with a majority expecting soft revenue, pressured gross margins, and lower adjusted EPS driven by compressed steel spreads and slower battery-materials growth. Several sell-side desks emphasize that weaker benchmark prices and lagged contract resets could weigh on profitability into the first half, while acknowledging that medium-term upside remains tied to energy materials scaling and downstream partnerships. The prevailing view highlights risk to near-term earnings relative to prior quarters, suggesting investors look for signs of stabilization in spreads and clearer delivery schedules in the battery supply chain before revisiting a more constructive stance.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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