Market drivers: With the Federal Reserve's decision now known, London spot precious metals surged overnight before retreating sharply, with intraday losses exceeding 2%. The debut remarks from Fed Governor Waller were more hawkish than anticipated, which, from a result-oriented perspective, is bearish for gold. However, given that this was largely priced in beforehand, the short-term negative impact may not persist. Yet, from the perspective of interest rate hike expectations, the bearish influence could extend into the medium term. Additionally, with the signing of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding, market focus may shift to navigation issues in the Strait of Hormuz and crude oil prices, which in turn could influence predictions for interest rate direction. Overall, gold is likely to continue trading within a consolidation range at lower levels. On the geopolitical front, US officials stated that the US and Iran have remotely signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict and opening the Strait of Hormuz, and the agreement is now in effect. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed that the text of the memorandum has been finalized and signed by both parties.
Spot Gold (London): From a technical perspective, the daily chart closed with a small bearish candle yesterday. The Bollinger Bands are showing signs of contraction, the KDJ indicator has formed a bullish crossover and is expanding, and the MACD is poised to form a golden cross. The broader trend remains upward-biased, while the medium-term outlook maintains a phase of downward movement. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands have opened significantly, with price action selecting a new direction as anticipated. The KDJ indicator has formed a bearish crossover and is expanding, while the MACD fast line is below the slow line with the green energy histogram gradually diverging. On the hourly chart, the Bollinger Bands are open, the KDJ indicator shows a bearish crossover with expanding volume, and the MACD fast line remains below the slow line with the green energy histogram continuing to diverge. Price rebounded as expected. The current short-term outlook suggests a minor corrective rebound followed by a resumption of the downtrend. Key support levels to watch are 4214, 4172, and 4133, while resistance levels are at 4253, 4273, and 4329.
Spot Silver (London): The broader trend is one of wide-range consolidation, with a medium-term phase of downward movement. Prices rebounded as anticipated. The current short-term focus remains on the continuation of this rebound. Resistance levels to monitor are 69.8 and 72.7, while support levels are at 64.3 and 61.9.
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