During the Asian and European trading session on Thursday, spot gold traded within a narrow range near $4727. Earlier on Thursday, Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon's Hezbollah cast a shadow over ceasefire negotiations, causing gold to surge then retreat during Wednesday's New York session. The current US-Iran standoff remains centered on three critical issues: the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz, Israel's military offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and whether Iran will adopt a tougher negotiating stance following the attack on the Hezbollah leader. Following a significant Israeli bombardment of Hezbollah the previous night, which placed Iran in a defensive position, the United Kingdom initiated diplomatic efforts targeting these three geopolitical pressure points.
UK Diplomacy Outlines Core Demands UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is scheduled to deliver an annual foreign policy speech at London's Guildhall on Thursday. She will explicitly call for free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and advocate for Lebanon's inclusion in the US-Iran ceasefire framework. She will formally demand guaranteed freedom of passage for vessels through this strategically vital waterway, countering Iran's intentions to control this global oil transport chokepoint.
Strait of Hormuz: Battle for the Global Energy Lifeline In her speech, Cooper will emphasize that the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blockaded by Iran since the recent conflict escalation. She will assert that fundamental freedoms of maritime navigation cannot be unilaterally revoked or selectively granted, and that international shipping lanes cannot be subject to tolls. According to the Financial Times, Iran plans to impose transit fees on vessels and is even considering requiring shipping companies to pay for oil tanker passage using digital currencies. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial channel linking the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, handles approximately 20% of global oil and gas trade. Its operational status directly impacts the stability of the global energy supply chain.
Ceasefire Extension: Including Lebanon in Negotiations Cooper will also strongly advocate for Lebanon's inclusion in the two-week ceasefire agreement reached between the US and Iran on Tuesday. She stated that the trilateral ceasefire involving the US, Israel, and Iran holds positive significance, representing a key step towards promoting regional security, alleviating global economic pressures, and reducing cost-of-living pressures in the UK. She urged that the relevant negotiations must achieve substantive breakthroughs to prevent a resurgence of conflict. Iran must cease security threats against neighboring countries, with the core objective being the full resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, she will highlight the economic impact of the Middle East crisis on the UK, including rising mortgage rates, and increased fuel and food prices. While Foreign Secretary Cooper delivers her speech, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is engaged in diplomatic consultations with multiple Gulf nations. They are jointly discussing concrete measures to maintain and implement the ceasefire agreement, attempting to de-escalate the persistently tense Middle Eastern situation through multilateral diplomacy.
Summary and Technical Analysis: From a financial market perspective, the unresolved status of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the risk of renewed conflict on the Israel-Lebanon border and a potentially hardening Iranian negotiating stance, could continue to drive short-term inflation. This may elevate global interest rate expectations, which could initially weigh on gold prices. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold's short-term trajectory is closely tied to Middle East developments. Should UK mediation succeed, or US-Iran negotiations progress smoothly, leading to a de-escalation of the Strait blockade or regional conflict, a return to a global easing narrative could directly boost gold prices. Technically, spot gold is holding above the channel's upper Bollinger Band and the 5-day moving average, suggesting potential for further rebound.
As of 17:07 Beijing time, spot gold was quoted at $4724 per ounce.
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