According to Woofun AI, liquidity fluctuations triggered by the US Treasury's bond buyback operations are becoming the core variable driving the inverse relationship between Bitcoin's price and the 10-year US Treasury yield, leaving the market in urgent need of clarifying whether the two are causally linked or merely moving in coincidence.
Macro data presents notable divergence: on Thursday, the 10-year Treasury yield touched a low of 5.06%, down 0.13 percentage points from the previous reading, while September PPI rose 1.3% year-on-year, marking the largest monthly gain since March 2022.
A sharp contraction in risk appetite drove capital out of technology stocks, with US chip stocks shedding $1.64 trillion in market value over six trading sessions, as investors flocked to bonds for safety.
This stands in stark contrast to Wednesday's action: boosted by inflation data, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.33%, BTC fell about 2% that day, and touched a 24-hour low of $79,806 in the early phase of the yield decline.
However, as yields fell further, BTC staged a strong 3% rebound from below the $80,000 range, and CoinGecko data showed its price back above $82,000 by noon New York time.
Historical operations provide empirical support for this linkage. The US Treasury announced on August 19 that it would at least double the scale of long-term bond buybacks, after which yields declined and BTC surged about 7% that day.
The department typically conducts buybacks between 1:40 pm and 2:00 pm Eastern Time. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that six hours after the September 10 buyback, BTC was still down 1%, but after the September 24 and October 8 buybacks it rose 0.4% and 1.3%, respectively.
Even against the backdrop of Thursday's BTC recovery, $6 billion still participated in the purchase, validating the direct liquidity injection effect of the buybacks.
Three buyback operations alone are not enough to fully disentangle the complex coupling among yield movements, dollar trends, capital flows and market liquidity, but the traces of Treasury intervention are already clearly visible.
The next key verification windows are the October 27 buyback operation and the November 4 refinancing operation; these two nodes will determine whether the liquidity logic continues to dominate asset pricing.
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