According to a research report from JPMorgan, recent market concerns suggest that inflation or geopolitical factors could lead to interest rate hikes, potentially causing a devaluation of Hong Kong's property sector. The bank's baseline forecast is for interest rates to remain unchanged over the next four quarters. Furthermore, homebuyers currently still benefit from a slight positive interest rate spread, and the sector is expected to withstand a stable rate environment. The report also notes that while expectations of rate hikes might trigger short-term profit-taking, historical data indicates that rising rates do not necessarily lead to declines in stock or property prices. Before becoming overly concerned about rate hikes, the market may be overlooking the recent sustained decline in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR), which is a positive factor for borrowing costs and mortgage rates, at least in the near term. Among the stocks covered by the bank, NEW WORLD DEV (00017) and HENDERSON LAND (00012) have earnings that are most sensitive to interest rate changes. Excluding interest rate factors, other fundamental aspects of the sector remain solid, and the bank maintains a positive outlook. Among developers, SHK PPT (00016) and SINO LAND (00083) are the top picks. Among property rental stocks, SWIREPROPERTIES (01972), Hong Kong Land, and HANG LUNG PPT (00101) are preferred.
Comments