On May 18th, spot gold briefly fell below $4,500 per ounce, reaching a low of $4,480.01 per ounce, before closing the day at $4,566.39 per ounce, marking a gain of 0.59%.
The year 2026 began with international gold prices on a sustained upward trajectory. On January 29th, spot gold approached a record high near $5,600 per ounce. This was followed by a significant sell-off in March, with prices falling below $4,100 per ounce on March 23rd, hitting a low of $4,098.25 per ounce.
Goldman Sachs indicated that central banks are expected to increase their gold purchases, supporting a price recovery by year-end. Monthly central bank gold purchases in 2026 are projected to rise to 60 tonnes. According to a revised accumulation model, the 12-month average of central bank purchases reached 50 tonnes in March, up from a previous figure of 29 tonnes. Analysts cited internal research suggesting that central banks have a long-term, structural demand for gold, and recent geopolitical developments may continue to accelerate their diversification of assets. Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold prices could rise to $5,400 per ounce by the end of this year.
Conversely, JPMorgan Chase has revised its 2026 average gold price forecast down to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708 per ounce. However, due to an anticipated reacceleration of demand in the second half of 2026, the base case scenario still projects gold prices reaching $6,000 per ounce by year-end.
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group released a report stating that gold prices will climb to $6,000 per ounce by mid-2027, as the Middle East conflict is expected to ultimately slow economic growth, prompting central banks to ease monetary policy.
In the short term, ANZ notes that gold prices are likely to find support around $4,500 per ounce, and any pullback would present an "opportunity to establish new positions." The bank forecasts a year-end price of $5,600 per ounce, lower than its previous target of $5,800 per ounce. It further predicts that gold will reach $6,000 per ounce by mid-2027, a later timeframe than its earlier forecast of early 2027.
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