Data collected over the past 24 hours shows the average terminal retail price for major Chinese baijiu products experienced a slight decline on April 16th. If one bottle of each major product were bundled for sale, the total price today would be 9,867 yuan, a minor decrease of 3 yuan from the previous day, marking a new low for the past month. The overall market price continues to operate at low levels, with terminal trading activity remaining stable but weak.
Within the market, 11 major products saw mixed movements: five increased, four decreased, and two remained unchanged. Among the gainers, Blue-and-white Langjiu led with an increase of 3 yuan per bottle. Wuliangye普五八代, Crystal Sword Nanchun, Yanghe Dream Blue M6+, and Blue-and-white Fenjiu 20 each saw a modest rise of 1 yuan per bottle. On the downside, Premium Moutai saw the largest drop, falling by 4 yuan per bottle. Feitian Moutai decreased by 3 yuan per bottle, Xijiu Junpin dropped by 2 yuan per bottle, and Gujing贡古20 experienced a slight dip of 1 yuan per bottle. The prices for国窖1573 and Wuliangye 1618 remained unchanged compared to the previous period. Terminal prices continue to show a pattern of divergent adjustments, with weak differences in sales performance across different products.
The daily data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points reasonably distributed across major regions of the country. These points include, but are not limited to, distributors designated by distilleries, independent distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The raw sample data consists of actual, transacted terminal retail prices recorded at each point over the past 24 hours, aiming to provide objective, scientific, and fully traceable data on the market prices of well-known baijiu. Following the official iMoutai platform's commencement of sales for Feitian Moutai at 1,499 yuan per bottle (increased to 1,539 yuan per bottle on March 31st) and Premium Moutai at 2,299 yuan per bottle starting January 9th, the gravitational influence of this new sales channel on the average terminal retail prices of these two products is gradually becoming apparent. The liquor prices published daily follow a calculation rule weighted by actual transaction volume, and quantifiable prices from this channel have been incorporated into the calculations for the terminal retail prices of these two products.
In significant industry news, a recent industry report highlighted that market concerns about the baijiu sector are primarily focused on weak fundamentals, a lack of positive signals, and insufficient investment appeal. However, the analysis suggests that demand resilience for banquets and personal consumption remains strong, and future elasticity in business demand is still significant. On the supply side, leading companies are proactively working to repair fundamentals, making it highly probable that a further marginal deterioration will be avoided. In the current low-interest-rate environment, the mismatch between valuations and fundamentals provides allocation opportunities for the sector. The report also noted that the investment logic for the baijiu sector is shifting from "volume and price scale" to "scarcity plus cash flow certainty." It suggests that the valuations of leading baijiu companies may already be in a bottom range and recommends focusing on three main themes for allocation: relatively certain leaders, management-driven companies with clear restructuring logic and strong channel execution, and deeply adjusted targets at the bottom with potential for reform-driven catalysts.
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