The weekend's news flow was already unfavorable, so today's declines in both the A-share and Hong Kong markets were anticipated; however, the magnitude of the drop was somewhat exaggerated. Today, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.48%, while the Hong Kong market declined by 2.23%. More strikingly, the South Korean stock market, a bellwether for the current tech cycle, saw an intraday plunge of over 5%. The US continues to threaten Iran; according to CCTV News, on February 1st local time, former President Trump, responding to reporters' questions about Iran at Mar-a-Lago, stated he hoped "to be able to reach a deal." Responding to Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei's warning that "a US strike would trigger a regional war," Trump said that if a deal cannot be reached, "then we'll see if he [Khamenei] is right." Trump emphasized to reporters that the US has deployed "the largest and most powerful ships in the world" to the relevant region. Logically, shouldn't gold act as a safe haven during such tense times? Furthermore, after such a significant drop last Friday, why is there no rebound? Some interpret this as being due to expectations that the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, will adopt a hawkish stance and explicitly oppose unlimited quantitative easing. However, this author finds this attribution rather far-fetched and unconvincing. The real reason is that gold itself was overhyped; the underlying logic isn't flawed, but speculative capital simply became too frenzied. Following gold's reversal last Friday, this author noted that a period of consolidation would be necessary, and a rapid rebound was unlikely. Moreover, the US has not yet formally initiated any military strikes. With the timing not right, who would dare act rashly? Additionally, there are signs of easing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine direction; Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that a new round of talks is scheduled to continue in Abu Dhabi from February 4th to 5th, expected to be conducted in a trilateral format involving Russia, the US, and Ukraine. Therefore, the continued decline in gold is quite normal. The main Shanghai gold futures contract hit the downside limit during the session, trading at 1005.4 yuan per gram, down 16%. Spot gold fell below $4,500 per ounce for the first time since January 9th, with an intraday drop of nearly 8%. Spot silver fell over 14% intraday, erasing nearly all gains made over the past month. Futures traders who were slow to exit their positions likely faced liquidation. Another risk asset is also falling; during the early session on February 2nd, Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, once fell below $76,000 per coin, down approximately 40% from its 2025 peak. Shandong Gold (01787) and Chifeng Gold (06693) both fell over 12%. Several major oil stocks also declined in tandem. Coupled with the increase in Value-Added Tax for mainland telecommunications operators, which is estimated to impact the profits of China Mobile (00941), China Telecom (00728), and China Unicom (00762) by 9%, 18%, and over 18% respectively, these stocks also broke through key support levels and fell. Under these circumstances, the indices simply couldn't hold up. Market declines always seem to attract negative rumors: Today, another piece of speculative writing regarding potential IPO policy changes circulated, suggesting that "the CSRC issued three announcements late on February 1st, raising the proportion of on-site IPO inspections from 5% to 20%, extending the lock-up period for pre-IPO investments to 36 months, effective April 7th, and additionally, batch suspensions of investment banking projects, as regulators aim to cool down the primary market." It's puzzling how such fabricated news spreads, and it is suggested that regulators should properly address this. The battle among major tech firms for user traffic portals has officially begun. On the first day (February 1st) of Tencent Yuanbao's Spring Festival red packet campaign, the Tencent Yuanbao App climbed to the number one spot among free apps on the Apple App Store. It is expected that Alibaba and ByteDance will likely follow suit. Tencent's partner Weimob (02013) opened higher in the morning but succumbed to broader market pressure, especially since its positive news had already been priced in previously. For application-oriented stocks, performance remains key. CloudMinds (09678) expects to generate approximately 6.0 to 6.2 billion yuan in revenue related to its large model business within 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 1057% to 1095% compared to 2024. This significant performance growth is attributed to its leading core technological capabilities in large models and an accelerated pace of commercial implementation. The stock rose over 5% today; Changfei Fiberoptic Cable (06869) showed relative resilience, managing to gain over 1%. A handful of pharmaceutical stocks attracted buying interest. CMS Pharma (00867) announced that its subsidiary, Demei Pharmaceutical Limited, received approval from China's National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) on January 30, 2026, for the New Drug Application (NDA) of Ruxolitinib Phosphate Cream (for vitiligo indication). The product is intended for the treatment of non-segmental vitiligo with facial involvement in patients aged 12 and above. It is the first and only targeted therapy approved in China for vitiligo treatment, addressing a significant unmet clinical need. Note that "Demei Pharmaceutical" is currently applying for an independent listing on the Main Board of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. The stock rose nearly 8% today. Positive news for consumption emerged normally, as the Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued the "2026 'Happy Spring Shopping' Spring Festival Special Activity Plan." The plan proposes encouraging local governments to increase subsidies for consumer product trade-ins during the Spring Festival, enhancing support for offline physical retail, mobilizing enterprises to continuously organize exhibitions and sales activities related to automobiles, home appliances, digital and smart products during the festival, guiding businesses to set up experience zones for products like smart terminals, offering more discounts to in-store experience consumers, intensifying policy interpretation and offline experiential consumption promotion, and fostering a strong atmosphere for trade-ins. However, the stimulative effect of such policies is inherently limited due to finite fiscal resources; a genuine recovery in the stock market is more fundamental. Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797), repeatedly mentioned recently, performed notably well, rising over 4% again today. Following that, baijiu (liquor) stocks gained; the baijiu sector has been adjusting for about five years, and its current valuation and institutional positioning are at historically low levels. Zhenjiu LiDu (06979) rose over 3%. Other catering stocks like Xiao Cai Yuan (00999) gained nearly 5%. Macau gaming stocks saw collective movement today, anticipating potentially better-than-expected tourism to Macau during the upcoming Spring Festival period. Sands China (01928) rose over 4%; MGM China (02282) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) both gained over 1.5%. The former leader, Pop Mart (09992), benefited from the British Prime Minister's visit. On January 30th, it was reported that at the "CEO Roundtable," a parallel forum of the China-UK Business Forum, Wang Ning, Founder and CEO of Pop Mart (09992), announced that London would be established as its European headquarters. The company plans to open 27 new stores in Europe, including 7 offline stores in the UK (Birmingham, Cardiff, and a flagship store on London's Oxford Street), with related investments expected to create over 150 jobs in the UK. The stock rose over 1% today. The current automotive market is quite bleak. Overall car sales in January showed a sequential decline. Geely (00175) reported passenger vehicle sales of 270,200 units for the month, a year-on-year increase of 1.29% and a sequential increase of 14.08%, making it the only enterprise currently achieving positive growth both year-on-year and sequentially. NIO-SW (09866) nearly doubled year-on-year, exceeding expectations. For stocks at their lows, it feels like a timing opportunity for left-side accumulation. A new filing from the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) indicates that SpaceX is applying to launch and operate a constellation of up to 1 million satellites possessing unprecedented computational power (orbital data centers) to support advanced artificial intelligence. Junda股份 (02865) rose over 2%. According to a February 2nd report from TrendForce, based on its latest memory industry survey, AI and data center demand in the first quarter of 2026 continues to exacerbate the global imbalance between memory supply and demand. Memory makers' bargaining power is increasing rather than decreasing. Consequently, TrendForce has comprehensively raised its QoQ growth estimates for Q1 DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices. It now estimates that overall Conventional DRAM contract prices will increase by 90-95% QoQ, revised up from the 55-60% increase announced in early January. NAND Flash contract prices are revised up to a 55-60% QoQ increase, from the previous 33-38%, and further upward revisions are not ruled out. Key Hong Kong-listed related stocks: GigaDevice (03986), Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics (01385). NIO-SW (09866) announced that it delivered 27,182 vehicles in January 2026, a year-on-year increase of 96.1%. The deliveries comprised 20,894 premium smart electric vehicles under the NIO brand, 3,481 family smart electric vehicles under the Ledao brand, and 2,807 smart electric premium compact cars under the Firefly brand. Cumulative vehicle deliveries reached 1,024,800 as of January 31, 2026. Analysis: The near-doubling year-on-year growth exceeded expectations, while the sequential decline is a normal seasonal adjustment following the year-end sales push. Demand in the high-end pure electric segment remains robust, with the ES8 proving its product strength can transcend cycles. With nearly 100 million battery swap services completed, a vehicle parc of over a million is driving increased network utilization efficiency. The heavy-asset battery swap model is approaching an inflection point towards profitable operation, paving the way for a potential independent financing or IPO of the energy cloud business, which would establish a new valuation logic. The company's core plans for 2026: For the NIO brand, the company aims to achieve monthly sales of 50,000 units in a certain month during the first half of next year. It will launch three large-sized models (two in Q2, one in Q3) and continue to advance its in-house chip development. It is exploring with partners the possibility of opening its autonomous driving chips to non-automotive sectors like industry and robotics, aiming to generate new technical service revenue by acting as a Tier 1 supplier of chips and design capabilities. The Ledao brand will target the mainstream family market, covering the 100,000-300,000 yuan price range. Development of a platform for models below 200,000 yuan has begun and will be launched at an appropriate time to further expand market coverage. Regarding overseas expansion, the company has partnered with dozens of local dealers. The Firefly model will be the key export model in the near term, followed by the gradual entry of the Ledao and NIO brands into global markets. The overseas rollout strategy will be the reverse of the domestic sequence: starting with Firefly, then introducing Ledao and NIO, building a comprehensive overseas product portfolio from entry-level to premium, thereby driving continuous growth in overall scale. In summary, considering the company's Q4 2024 guidance and delivery rhythm, and with five new SUV models scheduled for launch next year, a strong product cycle appears poised to begin.
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