In the final weeks of his tenure as UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer repeatedly warned that the world was becoming "more dangerous and more volatile." Andy Burnham, however, is about to confront this international landscape directly.
Should Burnham face no challenger in the coming weeks, he is poised to succeed Starmer at 10 Downing Street as Britain's next prime minister. This would thrust the former mayor of Manchester rapidly into the role of leading the UK's response to a slate of international issues, including support for Ukraine, security in the Strait of Hormuz, and managing the sharp criticism from US President Donald Trump aimed at the transatlantic alliance.
While Burnham's record of driving economic growth and electoral success in the de-industrialized regions of northern England has convinced many in the Labour Party that he can address the party's domestic political challenges, his foreign policy credentials are far less established. He has never held a defense or foreign affairs post, nor served as opposition leader. His most prominent international stance to date was his vote in favor of the Iraq war.
Since taking office in 2024, Starmer's domestic agenda has been repeatedly disrupted by international diplomatic events, from Trump's return to the White House to his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to the US, with foreign affairs consistently demanding significant attention. Burnham is expected to assume the premiership just days after Starmer concludes his trip to the NATO summit in Ankara, a gathering anticipated to expose rifts within the alliance that has underpinned British security for eight decades.
In April, Starmer stated, "We should not allow events abroad to dictate our destiny," as Trump's hardline policies toward Iran threatened the UK economy. Although foreign policy has been one of the few areas where the politically embattled Starmer has received some praise, it has also been the source of some of his biggest controversies, such as his initial reluctance to publicly call for a ceasefire in Gaza.
According to insiders, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper has privately conveyed to Burnham the critical importance of maintaining policy continuity in foreign affairs. This week, Cooper and Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy are in Poland holding talks on rebuilding Ukraine. Meanwhile, Burnham recently discussed national security with John Healey, who resigned as defence secretary earlier this month following disagreements with Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves over defence spending.
Some members of Burnham's existing team do possess foreign policy experience. For instance, one of his aides, Donjeta Miftari, served as a foreign policy adviser early in Starmer's premiership, though she now handles communications for Burnham. However, compared to the cadre of economic advisers he has recently assembled—including former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane and former Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill—Burnham has yet to form a similar brain trust on foreign affairs.
Nevertheless, the impending transition of power in Westminster is already impacting diplomatic matters. The UK-EU summit, which some had hoped would further advance a reset in relations, has been postponed until after the summer following Prime Minister Starmer's announcement of his resignation on Monday.
Insiders reveal that Burnham's team has not yet held talks with Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister for European relations, to discuss plans for the UK's subsequent negotiations with Brussels. Consequently, Burnham currently lacks a detailed understanding of the technical specifics under discussion, such as youth mobility arrangements and trade agreements for fresh agricultural products.
As a result, government officials widely expect that, at least in the short term, the current administration's strategy for negotiations with Europe will largely be continued by a Burnham government. However, the prime minister-in-waiting has previously stated a desire for a more proactive and ambitious policy towards the EU than Starmer's, even suggesting a potential path for the UK to eventually rejoin the bloc.
Simultaneously, a pressing internal debate exists within Burnham's camp: whether to move quickly to increase defence spending. Starmer stated on Wednesday that he still intends to publish the UK's long-delayed defence investment plan before the NATO summit in two weeks.
Foreign policy also marks a clear dividing line between Labour and the populist Reform UK party, whose leader Nigel Farage is a close ally of Trump and opposes closer ties with Europe. Meanwhile, Starmer's stance on Gaza is seen as having accelerated the drift of left-leaning voters towards the Green Party.
UK government officials have privately warned that if Burnham fails to articulate a clear foreign policy swiftly, he risks not only damaging the UK's relationships with allies but also undermining his own political standing.
"Foreign policy cannot be refined over the coming months; global crises will not pause for Burnham to formulate a plan," said Anand Menon, director of the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. "In terms of foreign policy, we simply do not know where he stands at the moment. What is his view on Israel? On Trump? Does he support increased defence spending? These questions need urgent answers to reassure Britain's allies."
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