Gold Latest Market Trend Analysis: January 9th, Gold News Analysis: On Friday, international gold opened with a narrow, slightly weaker fluctuation. This is influenced by the continuously strengthening US Dollar Index, market concerns over bearish expectations for the Non-Farm Payrolls data, and the upcoming annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index this week, which is expected to trigger selling pressure on gold prices, thereby limiting the current rebound momentum. Guard against the risks of sharp declines and volatile trading conditions over the next week or so. However, the bullish outlook for the direction remains unchanged, with the $5,000 target and even higher levels still attainable. The US December unemployment rate and Non-Farm Payrolls data released today, while overall expectations lean towards being bearish for gold, based on this week's ADP and Initial Jobless Claims data, also carry a probability of being positive. Furthermore, a single Non-Farm report is unlikely to alter the trend, so even if it meets expectations, it's difficult to exert sustained pressure on gold prices. Concurrently, the market still has safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions and the favorable prospect of Federal Reserve officials continuously calling for significant interest rate cuts. Therefore, any declines and sharp drops caused by temporary data present opportunities to re-enter long positions.
Gold Technical Analysis: Looking at the current chart, after four trading days this week, the first two days were driven by technical movements. He Bosheng emphasized that there was a rebound from a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern and a rise from a double bottom. Consequently, gold rose from 4300 to 4400, and further to 4500. The latter two trading days included the ADP employment data and jobless claims data. Although the data's immediate impact on the market was not strong, it essentially did not change the overarching bullish trend for gold. Thus, gold still managed to advance within its trending upward space, reaching a high of 4485 on Thursday. This indicates that gold is currently in a high-level consolidation phase within a bullish trend. The focus now shifts to the impact of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls data. The previous value for this data was 64K, with a market forecast of 60K. If the actual figure is higher than the forecast, it suggests strength in the US market, which is bearish for gold. If the actual figure is lower than expected, it indicates weakness in the US market, which is bullish for gold. Judging by the actual ADP release, the data leans towards being bullish for gold, so today's Non-Farm data is also likely to favor gold. Whether it can actually rise, and to what extent, still depends on the actual impact of the data.
Furthermore, there is another time node in January's market movements: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announcement at the end of January. The Fed will once again discuss whether to cut interest rates and by how many basis points. Therefore, gold remains in an absolute and strong bullish position in the future market, poised to break higher at any time. From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, it is difficult for gold to sustain strong trending momentum above 4500, and a correction might occur. However, as long as the price does not break below 4400, the pattern remains a consolidating uptrend within the bullish trajectory. The H4 chart currently shows Bollinger Bands contracting, indicating a clear range, expected to oscillate between 4500 and 4400. Any pullback that holds above the 4400 support level presents a buying opportunity. Therefore, if the Non-Farm data is bearish for gold, a correction towards levels above 4400 still offers a chance to go long. If the data is bullish for gold, then attention should turn to testing the highs at 4500 and 4550. Overall, the recommended short-term trading strategy for gold today is primarily to buy on dips, supplemented by selling on rallies. Key short-term resistance above is focused around the 4485-4500 zone, while key short-term support below lies around the 4440-4420 zone.
Crude Oil Latest Market Trend Analysis: Crude Oil News Analysis: After two consecutive days of decline, the international crude oil market showed a significant rebound on Thursday. Brent crude oil saw its intraday gains widen to as much as 5%, reaching a new two-week high, indicating a rapid shift in market sentiment from caution to a more bullish bias. During the Asian session on Friday, US crude experienced a slight pullback, approaching a dense resistance area, trading near $58/barrel in the short term. From a short-term fundamental perspective, bearish factors have not completely dissipated. The US plans to sell up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil to domestic refiners, while the latest data shows increases in both US gasoline and distillate inventories, theoretically putting downward pressure on prices. However, the market's current pricing logic focuses more on the risks of short-to-medium-term supply disruptions rather than changes in isolated inventory data. The situation in Venezuela remains one of the key variables being assessed by investors.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis: From a daily chart perspective, oil prices have entered a consolidation phase after touching near 54.80. The K-line formed a substantial bearish candlestick, and the moving average system is suppressing the price, arranged in a bearish order, indicating a downward medium-term objective trend. The current primary and secondary subjective trend direction for crude oil remains downward. According to the principle of trend alternation, the medium-term downward rhythm for crude oil remains intact. On the short-term (1H) chart, the price made a second decline, creating a new low, although the magnitude of the drop slowed compared to the previous trading day. The moving averages are in a bearish alignment, confirming the short-term downward objective trend. The MACD indicator is intertwining below the zero line, with bearish momentum holding the advantage. It is anticipated that after a minor rebound during the day, crude oil prices still face the risk of continuing their decline. Overall, the recommended trading strategy for crude oil today is primarily to sell on rallies, supplemented by buying on dips. Key short-term resistance above is focused around the 59.5-60.5 zone, while key short-term support below lies around the 56.8-55.8 zone.
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