Orient Securities released a research report stating that the 2026 Spring Festival, being the longest holiday on record at 9 days (compared to 8 days last year), combined with favorable weather conditions, led to a full release of travel demand. A breakdown by sector shows strong performance in scenic spots, hotels, and cross-border travel; catering and offline retail met expectations moderately; while duty-free sales in Hainan overall fell below expectations, although reduced discounts benefited profit margins. The Spring Festival travel data aligns with the view that service consumption outperforms goods consumption, with the structure indicating "scenic spots and travel-related chains stronger than catering and goods consumption." In the short term post-holiday, focus should be on areas exceeding expectations, while the long-term outlook remains dependent on policy beta. The main points from Orient Securities are as follows:
Aggregate figures hit new highs, demonstrating demand elasticity. All following data are daily averages for the 9-day 2026 Spring Festival holiday compared to the 8-day 2025 holiday. According to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, domestic trips during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday reached 596 million, with a daily average increase of 5.74% year-over-year. Total domestic tourism spending was 803.5 billion yuan, with a daily average increase of 5.5% year-over-year, showing the characteristic of "higher elasticity in trip volume than in spending per trip," which met expectations. Data from the Ministry of Transport indicated that cross-regional passenger flows during the same period exceeded 2.8 billion person-times cumulatively, with a daily average growth of 8.2% year-over-year, exceeding expectations. Daily average passenger volume for railways, highways, and waterways all increased by over 10% year-over-year, while civil aviation grew by 7.7% year-over-year, setting a new historical record for travel scale. According to the National Immigration Administration, cross-border travel during the Spring Festival holiday totaled 17.796 million person-times, with a daily average growth of 10.1% year-over-year, falling below expectations. Among these, foreigner entries increased by 21.8% year-over-year, and entries under applicable visa-free policies grew by 28.5% year-over-year, indicating stronger recovery elasticity for inbound travel.
Scenic Spots: High Elasticity Release in Core Destinations. During the 2026 Spring Festival period: Three Gorges: According to statistics from the Yangtze River Three Gorges Navigation Administration, from February 15 to 23, the Three Gorges hub river section received a cumulative total of 421,000 tourists, with a daily average increase of 102.9% year-over-year. Ferry transport accounted for 117,000 person-times, with a daily average increase of 174.3% year-over-year. Xiangyuan Culture & Tourism: During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, it received a total of 1.1428 million tourists, with a daily average of 127,000 tourists, representing a daily average increase of 28.31% year-over-year. Total revenue reached 70.9237 million yuan, with daily average revenue of 7.8804 million yuan, a daily average increase of 27.01% year-over-year. Changbai Mountain: During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, it received a total of 93,200 tourists, with a daily average of 10,400 tourists, a daily average increase of 9.44% year-over-year. Total revenue was 14.6146 million yuan, with daily average revenue of 1.6238 million yuan. Zhangjiajie: During the holiday, major scenic spots in Zhangjiajie (Wulingyuan, Tianmen Mountain, Grand Canyon) received a total of 564,300 person-times, with a daily average of 62,700 person-times, an increase of 2.78% year-over-year. Jiuhua Mountain: During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, it received a total of 538,500 tourists, with a daily average of 59,800 tourists, a daily average increase of 1.63% year-over-year. Total revenue reached 322 million yuan, with daily average revenue of 36 million yuan.
OTAs: Strengthening Trends of Long-Distance, Lower-Tier Cities, and Reverse Travel. According to data released by Tongcheng Travel, the 9-day super-long holiday drove an explosion in long-distance travel and county-level tourism, with hotel bookings in some counties increasing by over 400% year-over-year. Hainan saw significant growth in hotel bookings across the island during its first Spring Festival after customs closure. Data from Qunar indicates the continuation of the reverse travel trend for the New Year, with 18% of travelers flying to first-tier cities being over 50 years old, and travelers aged 60 and above increasing by over 10% year-over-year. Cross-border travel was active in both directions. Structural changes on the platform side are reflected in extended travel radii, expanded age demographics, and recovering inbound demand. OTAs benefit from upgraded traffic structures and improved decision-making efficiency, with the trend being a stronger attribute than the single holiday factor.
Catering: Steady Recovery, No Significant Surprises. According to monitoring by the Ministry of Commerce, during the 2026 Spring Festival, the daily average sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increased by 5.7% compared to the same period last year, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.6 percentage points. Passenger flow and turnover in 78 key monitored pedestrian streets increased by 6.7% and 7.5% respectively. Offline consumption recovery was relatively stronger in key cities; for example, Shanghai's offline consumption during the Spring Festival increased by 15.4% year-over-year, reflecting the resilience of consumption in core cities.
Regarding investment targets, the Spring Festival travel data supports the judgment that service consumption is superior to goods consumption, with the structure showing "scenic spots and travel chains stronger than catering and goods consumption." Related targets include: HWORLD-S (01179), Jiuhua Tourism (603199.SH), Three Gorges Tourism (002627.SZ), TRIP.COM-S (09961), and China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888.SH).
Risk warnings include: Macro consumption recovery falling short of expectations; fluctuations in household income expectations affecting travel frequency; changes in cross-border travel policies or the international environment impacting the pace of inbound travel recovery; disruptions to passenger flow due to extreme weather and safety incidents; intensified industry competition compressing price and profit margins.
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