Market Underestimates Potential Volatility in Gold Prices

Deep News18:01

The market is underestimating the potential volatility in gold prices amid the reality of "higher and more persistent inflation" impacting bond markets and supporting the US dollar.

The 1-month and 3-month implied volatility for gold has generally declined, moving in the opposite direction of actual volatility. The 90-day actual volatility is currently near its highest level since the global financial crisis, surpassing the period of gold price declines following 2011.

In less than two months, gold prices have shifted from hitting record highs to a 27% correction, highlighting their substantial fluctuation range. Simultaneously, other pressures are mounting. India, the world's second-largest gold importer, has raised import duties on gold and silver, which is expected to dampen overall local demand.

Despite recent declines in gold prices, according to the author's model, they remain overvalued and are susceptible to further drops.

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