Spot gold experienced a gap-down probe followed by a sharp recovery on Monday during the Asian and European sessions, currently trading near the 4100 level, up 1.2%. Previous analysis highlighted covert communication channels between the US and Iran, which were confirmed by a ceasefire over the weekend. While the dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz cannot be resolved quickly, the US strategy of attrition and containment against Iran remains effective. The US military retains the initiative, and Iran immediately reciprocated the ceasefire when offered. The US achieved its objectives through prior airstrikes, securing congressional approval for increased military spending and pressuring Iran to negotiate. However, there is no public declaration of ceasefire talks. Iran has stated it has not requested to resume negotiations with the US, noting that mediators have conveyed messages from Washington, but no talks are currently underway.
The situation between the US and Iran has entered a temporary military ceasefire window after escalating tensions. Both sides have suspended mutual military strikes for a second day. Multilateral mediation efforts continue, aiming to bring the two nations back to the negotiating table and establish a temporary ceasefire framework. However, previous rounds of conflict have severely undermined the basis for implementing a ceasefire agreement, and the regional situation has not truly cooled. This US-Iran standoff has lasted nearly two weeks. The US attributes the conflict's origin to Iranian harassment of commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, using this as a pretext for military strikes against Iran's coastal areas and core infrastructure. The Pentagon has not publicly explained its rationale for the ceasefire, maintaining an ambiguous stance.
The US Permanent Representative to the UN, Waltz, stated that the Trump administration is deliberately creating space for diplomatic negotiations. In recent weeks, mediating countries like Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan have facilitated multi-level, comprehensive indirect communication between the US and Iran. Waltz also refuted market rumors of depleted US interceptor missile stockpiles, though industry experts widely question the long-term sustainability of a retaliatory US-Iran conflict. The Iranian military formally announced a ceasefire, following the US lead in halting retaliatory strikes. Previously, Iran launched counterattacks against US military bases in the Middle East, resulting in the deaths of three US soldiers in Jordan and one in Iraq.
Key Areas of Focus and Initial Market Reaction
The 60-day temporary ceasefire agreement signed between the US and Iran in mid-June is now in its second half. While parties are striving to maintain dialogue channels, the core issue of Iran's nuclear program remains sidelined, with the focus of the博弈 fully centered on control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The differences in negotiations are difficult to reconcile. Although indirect talks have made minor progress, Iran's position is firm. It insists on retaining the right to collect "service fees" for shipping through the strait and maintaining absolute control over the waterway. Mediator Oman has proposed a compromise: forming a regional joint body to manage the waterway and abolishing all transit fees. This directly conflicts with Iran's core demands. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Baghaei, stated that Iran has fully fulfilled its obligations to ensure the safe passage of commercial ships, while the US has unilaterally violated previous agreements, placing full responsibility for the current regional tensions on Washington.
Meanwhile, Trump has sent contradictory signals. On one hand, he claims the situation with Iran is progressing smoothly and dialogue has resumed. On the other, he emphasizes that the time is not right for a final agreement, threatening to resume full-scale military action if Iran does not fully meet all US demands. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is preparing to visit the US for a meeting with Trump, offering full support for the US strategy to pressure Iran and abandon its nuclear program. Netanyahu warned Iran that any direct or proxy attack on Israel would result in severe consequences. Regional risks continue to spread, with Yemen's Houthi group threatening to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for Saudi shipping. This, combined with the lowest traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz in three weeks, has significantly increased uncertainty in the global energy supply chain. The US military has not relaxed its deterrence posture, continuing its maritime blockade, with several commercial ships forced to divert or undergo inspections, and US forces remain on high alert.
Core of the US Strategy: Military Control and Narrative Dominance
This prolonged standoff perfectly illustrates the core logic of modern great-power geopolitics: military force seeks physical control, while narrative power seeks to define responsibility. The US is clearly aware that it cannot achieve complete physical control of the Strait of Hormuz or fully suppress Iran's countermeasures through military means alone. A prolonged full-scale war would only drive up global oil prices, worsen domestic inflation, and negatively impact public opinion and the political landscape. Therefore, the optimal US strategy is "fight, pause, negotiate." Intermittent military strikes retain a deterrent and the option to resume hostilities, while periodic ceasefires project diplomatic goodwill and lay the groundwork for favorable public opinion. Compared to the military battlefield, where total victory is elusive, the battlefield of public opinion offers the US the lowest cost and highest potential returns.
The US narrative systematically severs the causal chain of the conflict to shift blame. It deliberately downplays its own role in initiating the military strikes, cutting the original cause of the war, and focusing global public opinion solely on Iran's control of the strait, fee collection, shipping disruption, and oil price increases. This carefully constructed narrative successfully creates a completely inverted public perception: the US is the "righteous side" promoting peace, protecting global shipping freedom, and stabilizing oil prices; Iran is the "disruptor" holding the energy route hostage, threatening the global economy, and causing the inflation crisis. This narrative serves three core US political objectives: first, to weaken Iran's regional influence and international credibility, using long-term negative narratives to undermine its geopolitical standing and pressure it to abandon its nuclear program; second, to secure domestic electoral gains by shifting public anger over high oil prices and inflation onto Iran, deflecting blame for the US decision to initiate conflict; third, to seize the global moral high ground, allowing the US to sever its link to energy-driven inflation, shift global blame, and maintain its identity as the leader of the global order, even if it cannot physically control the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, lacking the equivalent long-range military capability to counter the US, can only rely on its core geopolitical leverage, the Strait of Hormuz, for self-defense. However, this leverage directly impacts global energy supply, making it easily labeled and leaving Iran in a defensive position, struggling to justify its actions.
Summary and Technical Analysis
First, the US has never had the strategic intent to launch a full-scale war. Maximum pressure, a "fight and talk" approach, and narrative dominance are the long-term themes. The risk of a full-scale war is very low, and the market does not need to overreact to extreme geopolitical risks. At the same time, global economic growth continues to slow, reducing demand for crude oil. Therefore, the oil price increases, inflationary rebound, and rising rate hike expectations triggered by this geopolitical conflict are likely to remain within a manageable range and are unlikely to trigger sustained, vicious global inflation. However, a core market risk remains: the rapid expansion of the global AI industry generates continuous demand for financing, supporting long-term high yields on global long-term government bonds. This creates persistent pressure on risk assets and non-yielding assets like gold. Applied to the gold market, manageable US-Iran geopolitical friction and manageable inflation, leading to manageable expectations for Fed rate hikes, are positive for gold prices. Conversely, the high level of global long-term US Treasury yields continues to raise the holding cost for gold, significantly capping its upside potential.
From a technical perspective, spot gold is transitioning from a downtrend to a range-bound pattern. While it hasn't fully broken free from the downtrend, it is showing signs of stabilization. As long as gold prices remain above the 4050 level, the technical outlook is favorable for bulls.
As of 16:00 Beijing time, spot gold is currently trading at $4,091 per ounce.
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