According to an October 22 report, National Bank Financial of Canada released a research report that directly refutes recent Wall Street conspiracy theories suggesting that China has been "using Canada as a conduit" to increase its holdings of hundreds of billions of dollars in US Treasury bonds.
Previously, an October 14 report cited some Wall Street figures speculating that although China's US Treasury holdings have been steadily declining, China may be holding US Treasuries through Canadian custodial institutions, because Canada's US Treasury holdings have grown substantially in recent years.
However, three top analysts at National Bank of Canada pointed out directly in a research report that this conspiracy theory lacks direct evidence, and the growth in Canada's US Treasury holdings can be fully explained by Canada's own domestic financial activities. The claim that China could conceal its US Treasury holdings under Canada's strict regulatory oversight is simply too far-fetched.
They even quipped in the report: "Who doesn't love a conspiracy theory?"
The report refutes the conspiracy theory from three perspectives. First, an increase in holdings does not equal the purchase of a corresponding scale of new debt. The report cites Statistics Canada data showing that over the past five years, the value of foreign bonds held by Canadian investors increased by nearly 500 billion Canadian dollars, with about half of that increase coming from asset revaluation and exchange rate changes rather than new purchases. Wall Street has severely exaggerated the actual amount of new capital flowing into the US Treasury market.
Second, Canadian domestic banks themselves have a need to allocate US Treasuries. The growth in Canada's US Treasury holdings can be explained by domestic banks' financial activities, without the need to invoke a conspiracy theory.
Third, Canada's non-bank financial institutions are also an important source of growth in foreign bond holdings. There is substantial evidence that hedge funds have rapidly become increasingly important participants in the Canadian government bond market.
(In August 2026, Canada's holdings of US Treasury bonds increased to 464.6 billion US dollars. Image source: Trading Economics)
Separately, Fortune magazine reported on the 18th, citing the US Treasury Department, that the US Treasury holdings data published by the United States mainly comes from information provided by custodial institutions and broker-dealers. As for US securities held in overseas custodial accounts, they cannot be accurately attributed to the actual owners.
This indicates that there is a de facto attribution blind spot in official holdings data, making it difficult to support the inferences of the conspiracy theory.
According to a Canadian Financial Post report on the 22nd, the three analysts who wrote the report directly stated: "Canadian banks are subject to such strict regulation that it would be too far-fetched to suggest they could conceal the true situation of China's US Treasury holdings."
In addition, according to previous reports, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) of Canada has clearly stated that it does not comment on account transactions of specific clients or financial institutions.
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